(Alan Wooten, The Center Square) – Oddsmakers try to make money for the house, not necessarily forecast winners. Who the public thinks, however, is reflected when the odds adjust.
Friday morning, Arizona U.S. Sen. Mark Kelly had climbed to the top of five books as the betting choice for being Vice President Kamala Harris’ running mate on the Democrats’ presidential ticket.
Monday at noon, just under 24 hours after President Joe Biden had awkwardly stepped out of the race with a social media post, Kelly was a consensus fourth behind Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear.
Kelly, Shapiro and Cooper are the leaders, according to the oddsmakers analyzed.
Harris, at time of publication, was yet to make an announcement. More than half a dozen potential running mates are in the vetting process.
According to oddsmaker BetOnline, Kelly is plus-115, Shapiro plus-275 and Cooper plus-625. On Monday, Shapiro and Cooper were each at plus-225, Kelly plus-350 and Beshear plus-450.
At Bovada, Kelly is plus-135, Shapiro plus-275, Cooper plus-600, Beshear plus-1000. On Monday, it was Shapiro plus-200, Cooper plus-250, Kelly plus-350 and Beshear plus-500.
Polymarket has lifted Kelly to 40% (betting yes is 40 cents on the dollar). Shapiro is 23%, Cooper 13%, Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg 7% and Beshear 6%. On Monday, it was Shapiro 28%, Cooper 24%, Beshear 16% and Kelly 14%.
PredictIT has Kelly at 42 cents (on the dollar), Shapiro 26 cents, Cooper 12 cents, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz 10 cents, and Beshear 8 cents. Monday, Shapiro was at 33 cents, Cooper and Beshear each at 21 cents, and Kelly 20 cents.
OddSchecker has greatly changed its leaderboard since Monday, when Buttigieg was an overwhelming favorite and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer a distant second followed by former First Lady Michelle Obama. Friday morning, Kelly was at plus-158, Shapiro plus-320, Cooper plus-660 and Beshear plus-1200.
At $markets, Kelly is 37.8%, Shapiro 23.2%, Cooper 16.1%, Walz 9.5% and Beshear 8.7%. On Monday, it was Shapiro 37.3%, Beshear 20.4%, Cooper 20% and Kelly 15.6%.
