Supreme Court Considers Letting Trump Administration Revive Restrictive Immigration Asylum Policy

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Supreme Court Considers Letting Trump Administration Revive Restrictive Immigration Asylum Policy

(Headline USA) The Supreme Court grappled Tuesday with whether the Trump administration should be able to revive an immigration policy that has been used to turn back migrants seeking asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border.

Some conservative justices seemed receptive to the Justice Department’s push to overturn a lower-court ruling against the practice known as metering. Immigration authorities limited the number of people who could apply for asylum, saying it was necessary to handle an increase at the border.

The policy isn’t in place now, and Trump ordered a wider suspension of the asylum system at the start of his second term.

The administration, though, argues that metering remains a “critical tool” used under administrations from both parties, and should be available if necessary in the future.

Some justices seemed open to that argument, though others raised questions about whether the policy would allow people who entered the country illegally to apply for asylum while new arrivals seeking legal entry at the border could be blocked.

“Why would Congress privilege someone who illegally enters the United States?” Justice Brett Kavanaugh asked.

An attorney for the Trump administration maintained that people turned away one day could potentially come back later. “It’s saying our port is at capacity today, try again some other day,” said Vivek Suri, assistant to the solicitor general.

The Associated Press found thousands of immigrants on waiting lists when the policy was in place in 2019.

Under the Immigration and Nationality Act, migrants who arrive in the U.S. must be able to apply for asylum if they fear persecution in their home countries. The legal dispute at the heart of the metering case centers around the meaning of the words “arrive in.”

The Justice Department argues it means anyone who is in the United States already, so it doesn’t apply to people authorities stop on the Mexico side of the border. But immigration attorneys say the law has long meant anyone who comes to a port of entry must be able to apply, and it should stay that way.

“This life saving protection and more importantly, access to it is enshrined in our laws and has been for decades now,” said Rebecca Cassler, an attorney for the American Immigration Council, after arguments.

Chief Justice John Roberts peppered an attorney for the migrants with questions on exactly where someone must be to claim asylum. But Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson suggested that those questions are hard to answer when the policy isn’t being used.

“It just seems to me that we have a lot of hypotheticals regarding how this policy may have worked in the past, how it’s possibly going to work in the future, but we don’t have a policy in effect right now that we can actually rule on,” she said.

Metering was first used during President Barack Obama’s administration when large numbers of Haitians appeared at the main crossing to San Diego from Tijuana, Mexico. It was expanded to all border crossings from Mexico during Trump’s first term in the White House.

The practice ended in 2020 when the coronavirus pandemic led the government to greater restrictions on asylum-seekers. President Joe Biden formally rescinded the use of metering in 2021.

Also that year, U.S. District Judge Cynthia Bashant, an Obama nominee, ruled that metering violated the migrants’ constitutional rights and a federal law requiring officials to screen anyone who arrives at the border seeking asylum.

A divided 9th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals affirmed her ruling, but nearly half of the judges on the full San Francisco-based appeals court voted to rehear the case, a strong signal that may have caught the justices’ attention.

People seeking refuge in the U.S. are able to apply for asylum once they are on American soil, regardless of whether they came legally. To qualify, they have to show a fear of persecution in their own country because of specific reasons, such as their race, religion, nationality, membership in a particular social group or political opinion.

Once people are granted asylum, they can’t be deported. They can work legally, bring immediate family into the country, apply for legal residency and eventually seek U.S. citizenship.

The metering case is one of several immigration suits the court is considering this term, including Trump’s push to end birthright citizenship for babies born to people in the U.S. illegally. 

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press.

Two Suspects Charged in Shooting of US Park Police Officer Investigating a Previous Incident

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Two Suspects Charged in Shooting of US Park Police Officer Investigating a Previous Incident

(Headline USA) Washington, D.C., Metropolitan Police said Tuesday they have arrested two suspects in connection with an attack on a U.S. Park Police officer who was shot while driving in an unmarked vehicle.

Darren Foster, 21, and Asheile Foster, 22, have both been charged with assault on a federal police officer (gun).

The officer, whose identity was not disclosed, was shot Monday evening as he drove in a Washington neighborhood near its border with Maryland. Park Police Chief Scott Brecht said in a press briefing that the officer was working on an investigation when two gunmen fired at him multiple times as he drove by.

The Metropolitan Police press release announcing the arrests said the officer was investigating an incident that occurred in the Park Police’s jurisdiction when he was shot. He drove away to escape the gunfire and was later medevacked to a local hospital.

The officer was shot in the shoulder, according to a law enforcement official who was not authorized to publicly discuss the matter and spoke on the condition of anonymity. The veteran officer was released from the hospital Tuesday.

Jeffery Carroll, Washington’s interim police chief, said at a press briefing Monday that the officer was targeted and it was possible the gunmen knew he was a police officer.

Federal officials assisted in the investigation.

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press. 

Singapore Dealers Upping Inventory as Gold Demand Remains Strong

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Singapore Dealers Upping Inventory as Gold Demand Remains Strong

(Mike Maharrey, Money Metals News Service) Even as gold faces significant price pressure as the Iran war drags on, dealers in Singapore are bracing for continued high demand.

The Straits Times reports that bullion dealers, jewelers, and pawn shops report a surge in precious metals buying, and many retailers are boosting inventories to keep up with surging gold sales.

“Items like gold bars, coins and jewelry are among the items being snapped up by local buyers in recent weeks, with some also eyeing silver, they said. Also in the mix are people who want to cash in or trade their older gold items.”

This reveals that bearish gold market sentiment isn’t universal. If you watch gold’s price movement in recent days, you’ll find that it tends to be up modestly during Asian trading hours, with the big selloffs occurring when North American markets open in the morning.

There are also reports that while North American ETFs are shedding gold, Asian gold-backed funds continue to add metals.

Indigo Precious Metals Managing Director David Mitchell said his Singapore store has seen a 100 percent increase in demand so far this year.

“We have seen more buyers than sellers over the past year, but we also are beginning to see more sellers entering the market, which is typical after strong price moves.”

Mitchell said that he plans to maintain a higher “buffer stock” of 100-gram gold bars and 1-ounce coins while “managing premium price risks.” He said this is necessary due to higher demand coupled with stretched fabrication capacity and logistics at gold refineries, particularly in Switzerland, the UK, and Hong Kong.

“In the near term, price action is being driven primarily by geopolitics and interest rate expectations – if the current conflicts expand or key supply routes remain disrupted, the market may remain elevated longer than many expect.”

Silver Bullion founder Gregor Gregersen also reported strong demand. He said gold sales in the 12 months to March 1 were nearly 4.5 times higher than the previous year, with heavy demand concentrated in the first two months of 2026.

He told The Straits Times that he plans to quintuple its gold storage capacity to 2,500 tonnes with the construction of 22 additional vaults at the company’s 180,000-square-foot facility in Changi South.

Gregersen said the January correction drove a surge of buying as investors took advantage of the dip. He reported that “physical demand remains high, even with the price drop since the Iranian conflict kicked off,” but acknowledged, “We have not seen a repeat of the surge that occurred after the January price crash.”

However, Gregersen said he thinks the war is generally bullish for precious metals, even though some investors are tapping into gold’s liquidity as markets lurch through significant volatility.

“Investors may currently be more focused on deleveraging riskier assets amid falling equities rather than adding safe-haven assets such as gold.”

A similar pattern played out in the early days of the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic.

Yeah Lee Ching serves as the managing director of pawnbroker Value Max. She said she’s also seen a “noticeable” increase in gold demand.

“We have been a distributor of the world’s popular investment-grade PAMP Suisse bars for decades, and demand for the iconic ‘Lady Fortuna’ gold bar has been rising steadily since last year,” she said.

Ching indicated that she plans to increase its PAMP Suisse bars “several times more” to cope with the surge in demand.

SK Jewellery Group general manager Angelina Lau noted an increase in people selling old jewelry. However, buyers continue to outnumber sellers.

She also said there was an uptick in trade-ins.

“Some choose to upgrade to newer designs, while others exchange a single heavier piece for multiple items such as gold jewelry or gold collectibles.”

Ching called her customer base “diverse.”

“Investors purchasing investment-grade gold bullion bars increasingly include younger and middle-aged customers who are looking to diversify their portfolios, hedge against inflation, and gain exposure to physical precious metals.”

MoneyMax Financial Services manager Lim Chun Seng noted an influx of younger customers in recent months.

“Transactions include 916 and 999 gold jewelry, as well as investment-grade products such as 9999 gold bars. We have also observed more transactions in smaller jewelry items such as pendants and earrings, reflecting how consumers are adapting their purchases in response to higher gold prices while still maintaining an interest in owning gold.”

Tang Tian Li is one of the Singapore investors snapping up gold. The 30-year-old artist said he started buying gold bars in 2022 as he observed developments in the global economy.

“As new centers of power continue to rise and compete for influence, the reliability of fiat currencies whose values depend largely on government policies and monetary systems appears more fragile than many assume.”

Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for Money Metals with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.

Gold Tanking During a Crisis? We’ve Seen This Pattern Before

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Gold Tanking During a Crisis? We’ve Seen This Pattern Before

(Mike Maharrey, Money Metals News Service) Many people are flummoxed by gold’s deep correction over the last two weeks. Given there’s a war on, shouldn’t gold be catching a strong safe-haven bid?

In fact, the pattern playing out in the gold market isn’t out of character. We saw similar dynamics in the early days of the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic.

As I’ve already reported, the historical pattern since the 1980s suggests that, beyond an initial safe-haven bump, a war alone doesn’t seem to significantly impact the trajectory of gold prices. As wars drag on, other factors tend to drive the market – particularly monetary policy.

This has proved true so far in the Iran conflict. After initially surging to $5,400 an ounce at the onset of hostilities, gold quickly corrected as worries about inflation and higher interest rates drove the price down.

World Gold Council analysts say there are several dynamics weighing on gold, led by inflation concerns.

“Sharply higher real yields and expectations that policy rates will now rise in 2026, alongside de‑leveraging and profit‑taking, have all weighed on sentiment.”

Many people believe the Fed will be forced to hold rates higher for longer to deal with an oil price shock and inflation surge. The World Gold Council noted that “The oil market disruption and the Fed’s hawkish stance further cooled investors’ hopes on future cuts, pushing up yields and leading to accelerating global gold ETF outflows, mainly from U.S. funds.”

I agree that interest rate worries will likely create continued headwinds for gold. However, the markets seem to be ignoring the giant Debt Black Hole and the shaky nature of the economy. An oil shock would not only cause prices to rise more generally, but it could also be the pin that pricks the debt-riddled bubble economy. In that situation, the Fed would almost certainly pivot to looser monetary policy – not tighter.

The World Gold Council also acknowledged that political and economic realities may tie the central banker’s hands.

“Any signs of the Strait of Hormuz reopening – alleviating energy disruptions – could rebuild investor confidence. On the flip side, prolonged disruptions could lead to intensifying expectations of rate hikes – though political constraints and the mounting debt burden in the U.S. may limit the Fed’s room to raise.”

Does History Repeat?

More broadly speaking, despite its safe-haven nature, it’s not unusual to see gold fall in the early days of a crisis. As the World Gold Council pointed out, gold plunged in the early days of the 2008 financial crisis and the pandemic.

“The speed and breadth of market moves echo risk-off episodes seen in 2008 and 2020, when liquidity dynamics temporarily dominated fundamentals.”

Many people forget that gold was in a bull market in early 2008 but suffered a significant selloff at the onset of the financial crisis when the yellow metal fell 32 percent, giving up about 40 percent of its previous bull market gain. Gold then took off and soared by over 153 percent over the next few years.

Over the last several weeks, we’ve seen everything from equities to bonds to commodities selling off. It appears many investors are moving to cash to wait out the uncertainty of the war. When everything sells, this often triggers margin calls, forcing investors to liquidate assets to raise cash. Given gold’s liquidity, it is often the first victim in a “sell-everything” environment.

Worries about higher interest rates are also intensifying concerns about overall liquidity, and there are signs of stress in the private credit market.

The private credit market refers to non-bank lenders, such as private equity firms, asset managers, and other specialty funds. These institutions lend money directly to companies, providing alternative funding options for companies and individuals.

When an economy becomes overleveraged, there is generally some spark that triggers a meltdown. In the late 1990s, it was the dot-com bubble. In 2008, it was the real estate bubble. I recently wrote about concerns that the AI bubble could cause a credit market meltdown. A prolonged war may speed up that process.

In a recent interview, Verified Investing market strategist Gareth Soloway said there are already “severe cracks” in the private credit market. He noted that several big private income funds (funds that invest in private debt) have started “gating” investors. In effect, they are placing limits on withdrawal requests. For instance, Morgan Stanley’s North Haven Private Income Fund is strictly enforcing a 5 percent quarterly cap. As a result, the fund only met 45.8 percent of redemption requests. The fund reportedly made the move when withdrawal requests spiked to nearly 11 percent.

On Tuesday morning (March 24), Bloomberg reported that Ares Management has also limited withdrawals from its $10.7 billion credit fund.

Soloway said this stress is being reflected in the gold market as investors use the yellow metal’s liquidity to cover their liabilities.

“All of a sudden, they’re down 20-plus percent on their positions, and that can create margin calls.”

Soloway said those players have to be wiped out before gold resumes “its north trajectory.”

This is exactly what happened in both 2008 and 2020.

Rising Treasury yields also reflect stress in the credit markets as demand for U.S. debt remains tepid. Soloway called the spiking 10-year Treasury rate a “yield shock” equivalent to a 50-basis point Fed rate hike.

“I think the bond market is in play here and actually dictating policy,” Soloway said, speculating that rising yields may have motivated President Trump to walk back strike threats.

How this plays out will depend on how long the war continues. The longer the conflict goes on, the more likely bubbles will begin to pop.

Looking Ahead

In the meantime, expect significant volatility in the gold market with more downside risk.

World Gold Council analysts said they are in a “wait-and-see mode.”

“The prospect of a prolonged Middle East conflict is concerning, as it raises humanitarian and geopolitical risks alongside the threat of economic stagnation and higher industrial input prices.”

However, long-term, they remain bullish on gold.

“Although short-term shocks may affect gold’s near-term trajectory, the broader forces of multi-polarization, rising geopolitical fragmentation, and persistent sovereign debt concerns should continue to support gold’s strategic role.”

Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for Money Metals with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.

China Is Gobbling Up Physical Silver

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China Is Gobbling Up Physical Silver

(Mike Maharrey, Money Metals News Service) While the paper-driven silver price swings all over the place, the Chinese have been gobbling up physical silver.

China imported 790 tonnes of silver through the first two months of 2026, with 470 tonnes flowing into the country in February alone.

As Bloomberg described the situation, “Strong demand has pushed local prices well above international benchmarks, whittling down already-low exchange stockpiles and hoovering up metal from abroad.”

This is happening in a silver market that is already short on metal. The global silver market is expected to run its sixth structural deficit in 2026 as silver investment remains strong.

Based on preliminary data compiled by the Silver Institute, silver demand outstripped supply by about 95 million ounces last year, leading to the fifth straight market deficit. Including last year’s shortfall, the 5-year market deficit will climb above 800 million ounces, an entire year of mining output.

When mine output and recycling fail to meet demand, silver users must tap into existing above-ground stocks. That drives prices higher, as hands holding metal aren’t necessarily keen to give it up.

Silver prices have been extremely volatile, initially gaining about 70 percent to over $100 an ounce before correcting. Recently, we’ve seen prices in the $60 an ounce range. But as Bloomberg noted, “The strong import figures suggest physical consumption in China has been sustained despite shifts in trading flows.”

Chinese demand is two-pronged. Investors are snatching up silver bars. Meanwhile, solar manufacturers are scrambling to obtain metal before export tax rebates expire in April. One analyst told Bloomberg photovoltaic producers are “going gangbuster.”

Solar panel production uses about one-fifth of the world’s annual silver supply, and the industry is heavily concentrated in China.

As demand remains robust, physical silver inventories in Chinese exchanges keep falling. StoneX Group analyst Rhona O’Connell said this has an additional “psychological” effect on market players.

Premiums for large silver bars traded by big banks have been running as high as $8 an ounce in Hong Kong. They usually sell at a discount in London.

Keep in mind that similar displacements of metal precipitated two silver short squeezes that led to significant silver runs.

According to Bloomberg, the voracious appetite for silver in China has not disrupted the London market thanks to a massive inflow of metal after the first silver squeeze.

An exodus of metal from silver ETFs has also taken some strain off the market.

“For the first time in more than a year, the market can face this scale of demand without resulting in significant price dislocations or disruptions,” TD Securities senior commodity strategist Daniel Ghali said.

However, the market is basically playing a game of musical chairs. Shifting silver between New York, London, and Asian exchanges can temporarily ease squeezes, but it doesn’t fix the underlying problem – there isn’t enough silver.

So, what happens when investment demand picks up again, and metal flows back into ETFs?

As Bloomberg summarized it, “Visible inventories tracked by major exchanges from New York to Shanghai are either falling or sitting well below their long-term averages, suggesting metal remains scarce in the broader system. And the market has reason to be worried.”

Guangdong Southern Gold Market Academy researcher Song Jiangzhen noted that retail investors are increasingly turning to silver as the gold price climbs, making it inaccessible for some investors. While the recent correction has dampened enthusiasm somewhat, he said all it takes is another surge in silver prices.

“Retail investors tend to follow rising trends rather than buy dips.”

You might be wise to get ahead of the trends and take advantage of silver on sale.

Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for Money Metals with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.

Man Arrested for Throwing Human Remains at FBI Office

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Man Arrested for Throwing Human Remains at FBI Office

(José Niño, Headline USA) ​​A Texas man who drove his truck into a Dallas news station in 2018 has been arrested again after allegedly throwing a bucket containing human bones over a fence at an FBI field office, per a report by The Daily Mail.

Michael Chadwick Fry, 41, was taken into custody on Thursday and charged with abuse of a corpse for the act, which police in Bartonville, Texas said he filmed and posted on YouTube.

His arrest came after his mother contacted police last Monday to report that her son had asked her for money to rent a U-Haul. When she asked why, Fry told her he “had a body that needed to be moved,” according to a probable cause affidavit obtained by NBC News. Fry then became “irate” and left the home.

Shortly afterward, police received a call from Fry’s sister reporting that he “filmed himself on YouTube” throwing “Elizabeth’s remains” over the fence at the FBI Dallas office, according to the Denton Record-Chronicle.

The video allegedly showed Fry throwing a large closed white bucket over the fence into the secure parking lot of the FBI building. He claimed he was trying to compel the bureau to intervene in “what he describes as wrongdoing by Denton County officials from a past arrest.”

The FBI confirmed the bucket “contained numerous bones” that appeared to be human. Those remains are now awaiting forensic analysis.

Fry later posted another video to YouTube showing what appeared to be a human skull at his Denton County home, which he allegedly called “Elizabeth Virginia Lyons.” This led investigators to believe the skull came from the same set of remains found in the bucket. However, Denton police spokesperson Amy Cunningham said Lyons was buried at a local cemetery and her grave remains undisturbed.

Fry’s mother told police she discovered three cemetery searches in her vehicle’s GPS history, including one in Arlington, Texas and two in Oklahoma City. She also found a shovel that was never at their home before and noted her son had recently started locking the backyard shed, which he did not do previously.

As the investigation continued, authorities learned Fry had stolen an urn containing human remains from a cemetery in Oklahoma City. FBI agents also found evidence at a cemetery in Denton “indicating that a coffin containing human remains had been removed from a mausoleum.”

Reporters who visited the Denton cemetery observed damage to the Magee mausoleum, which contains the remains of Jasper P Magee and Mary Myrtle Wright, a married couple who died in 1942 and 1940 respectively.

Police confirmed that Fry is the same man who rammed a truck into the Fox 4 building in downtown Dallas in 2018. Footage from that attack showed Fry approaching the building, stopping, then accelerating and swerving directly into the structure. He reversed the vehicle, pulling a large panel of glass with it, before slamming into another part of the building. Police at the time arrested a “ranting” man behind the wheel. Fry later apologized to the news station during a court hearing.

According to the Cross Timbers Gazette, Fry has been arrested 28 times by local law enforcement agencies dating back to August 2003 on charges including burglary, engaging in organized criminal activity, arson, theft, making terroristic threats, and resisting arrest.

He is currently being held on a $300,000 surety bond.

José Niño is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino 

OnlyFans Owner Dies at 43 

Luis Cornelio
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OnlyFans Owner Dies at 43 

(Luis Cornelio, Headline USA) Leonid Radvinsky, the Ukrainian-American billionaire owner of the popular adult content site OnlyFans, has died, the company confirmed on Monday.  

He was 43. 

“We are deeply saddened to announce the death of Leo Radvinsky. Leo passed away peacefully after a long battle with cancer,” an OnlyFans spokesperson said in a statement widely reported by multiple outlets. 

“His family have requested privacy at this difficult time,” the statement added. 

It is unclear when Radvinsky was diagnosed with cancer. 

Radvinsky acquired OnlyFans in 2018.  

The subscription-based website allows content creators, including celebrities, influencers, and porn stars, to post content exclusively for paying subscribers. 

The platform is now valued at over $1 billion and reportedly generated nearly $2 million daily in 2024, according to Forbes. 

OnlyFans’ success made Radvinsky a billionaire in 2021, and at the time of his death, his net worth exceeded $4.7 billion. 

He first gained attention as a teenager by advertising access to hacked passwords for adult websites. 

AOC Paid $20K in Campaign Funds to ‘Ketamine’ Doctor

Luis Cornelio
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AOC Paid $20K in Campaign Funds to ‘Ketamine’ Doctor

(Luis Cornelio, Headline USA) Self-described democratic socialist Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez directed nearly $20,000 in campaign funds to a psychiatrist who specializes in ketamine-based treatments, according to a new report.

The payments, totaling $18,725, were made to Dr. Brian Boyle, who serves as the chief psychiatric officer at Boston-based mental health clinic Stella and whose specialty centers on interventional treatments like “Spravato, TMS therapy, stellate ganglion blocks and ketamine therapy.”

Ketamine was tied to the high-profile death of Friends star Matthew Perry, who was found unresponsive at his home in 2023.

It is unclear what the payments were specifically for. However, campaign disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission — first reported Monday by the New York Post and reviewed by Headline USA — list them as “leadership training” and “consulting.”

Headline USA reached Boyle by phone Monday evening, but he hung up as soon as he heard the publication’s name, saying, “I’m afraid I have to go.”

Neither Ocasio-Cortez’s congressional office nor her campaign responded to requests for comment about the nature of the payments.

The transactions include $11,550 on March 10, $2,800 on May 15 and $4,375 on Oct. 1.

Headline USA did not find any record of other campaigns paying Boyle in Federal Election Commission filings dating back to 2013.

Boyle has publicly promoted the practice, saying in a 2025 podcast that he “just saw the incredible power of what these treatments could do,” according to the outlet.

“It’s a ton of fun helping patients get better,” Boyle added.

Ocasio-Cortez’s payments to Boyle come as she has supported experimental mental health treatments.

Among her positions are efforts such as ending the federal prohibition on marijuana and proposing legislation to study psychedelics, including psilocybin.

She has also touted her work to “expand accessibility to psychedelics” for PTSD treatment.

“From the opioid crisis to psilocybin’s potential w/ PTSD, it’s well past time we take drug use out of criminal consideration + into medical consideration,” she wrote in 2019. “That begins with research. I’m proud to introduce an amendment that helps scientists do their jobs.”

I’ve Turned Into a Gold Bear — For Now

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I’ve Turned Into a Gold Bear — For Now

(Mike Maharrey, Money Metals News Service) I’ve turned bearish on gold. For now.

Bearish sentiment has taken over the markets. As one analyst put it, “Wall Street has thrown in the towel on gold.”

The problem is, they threw in the towel while they were still dripping wet.

Gold got pummeled last week, and the selloff continued into Monday morning. The yellow metal plunged below $5,000 and then fell further. In fact, gold recorded its worst week since 1983. But early Monday morning, gold had been pounded down below $4,300.

It’s important to put the sell-off into some context. Pretty much everything is selling right now.

Stocks are down.

Bonds are down. (Rising yields indicate selling in the bond market.)

It appears that, amid the turmoil in the markets and uncertainty about the Iran war, investors are shifting to cash and taking a wait-and-see position. The dollar is up since the war started (at least compared to other currencies.

Oh, and they’re probably buying a lot of oil.

Perception

Perception is driving the markets right now.

The primary factor undercutting gold seems to be inflation worries and the perception that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer. There is even some concern that the Fed will have to raise rates if an oil shock drives price inflation higher. Higher interest rates are considered a headwind for gold because the yellow metal is a non-yielding asset.

On the other side of the coin, gold is an inflation hedge, and it is a little odd to sell your inflation hedge as you anticipate higher inflation. However, over the last decade or so, the anticipated trajectory of monetary policy in response to inflation has driven the gold price more than inflation expectations themselves. This has created a world where inflation worries drive gold prices lower, and when markets expect inflation to ease, they buy gold, anticipating the Fed’s rate cuts.

The gold selloff is kind of like a rock running downhill. People who got into the market chasing new daily highs broke camp. Weak hands are being filtered out. There may well be more downside in the days and weeks ahead, especially if central banks turn more hawkish in their rhetoric.

Analyst Adrian Day has also become bearish on gold in the near-term.

“Sentiment has changed, and the market is focused on the negatives, including central banks around the world – including the Federal Reserve – being more reluctant to cut interest rates in the face of higher oil prices.”

But I still don’t think that the fundamentals that drove gold higher over the last two years have suddenly disappeared. In fact, the war will exacerbate some of those factors in the long run.

Reality

You notice that we’re talking about perceptions here. But what about reality?

I don’t think the Fed is going to raise rates. I’m not even certain the Fed will hold rates higher for longer. In fact, I believe we’re going to see more rate cuts much sooner than many people expect.

That’s because this war may well be the pin that finally pops the debt-riddled bubble economy. I don’t care if there are inflation worries or not. I am almost certain that the central bank will respond to an economic crisis the same way it always has. It will slash rates. It will launch quantitative easing. It will seek to rescue the economy and worry about the inflationary effects later.

What we’re talking about here is stagflation – rising prices even as the economy goes into a tailspin. I’ve been anticipating a stagflationary scenario for a long time. The economy is set up for it. We have a Debt Black Hole and a bevy of malinvestments dating back to the Great Recession years that have never been cleansed from the economy.  And we have sticky inflation combined with a monetary policy that, contrary to popular belief, remains historically loose.

The Fed is in a Catch-22. I believe that in the not-too-distant future, it will have to pick between inflation and propping up the economy with easy money. When it hits that crossroads, I believe it will choose inflation. When the easing train starts running down the track, I want to have gold – and a lot of it.

Day agrees that gold’s downturn will likely prove “temporary” and that the hawkish Fed is a myth. He said that while the central bank may not cut rates aggressively, it could launch another round of quantitative easing (QE), noting that it “would have an equally positive impact on gold.”

In fact, the Fed is already running QE operations, although you will never hear that word uttered by a central banker or a financial media pundit. However, you can see that the Fed’s balance sheet is increasing. That means it is buying Treasuries with money created out of thin air. Call it what you want. At the end of the day, it’s QE.

Gold bugs might have a rough time in the days and weeks ahead, but as the saying goes, this too shall pass. In fact, as quickly as the news on the war keeps changing, it could pass pretty quickly. However, until market sentiment gets off this notion that interest rates are going to stay high or get higher (they aren’t really high now, historically speaking), gold (and silver) will continue to face headwinds.

As Day notes, we need to keep focused on the big picture as we’re inundated by a parade of headlines.

“And the buyers of gold the last few years – and the reasons they were buying – have not gone away. So, we may see gold weaker in the near term, but the fundamental monetary and fiscal problems behind gold’s bull market will re-emerge once the war ends or settles down.”

Let Me Be Clear!

When I say I’m a gold bug, for now, that doesn’t mean I’m selling my gold. That seems insane to me in a world where we’re likely to face a declining economy and rising inflation. I don’t want less gold, I want more of it. That means I view these sub-$5,000-an-ounce prices as a nice buying opportunity.

In the long run, I sure as heck don’t want to be sitting on a bunch of fiat dollars as the federal government continues to run massive deficits and drive the debt higher. I don’t want to be sitting on a bunch of fiat dollars if the economy goes into a tailspin. And I sure as heck don’t want to be sitting on a bunch of fiat dollars when the Fed cranks up the money-printing machine to rescue the aforementioned economy in a tailspin!

Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for Money Metals with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.

Federal Officer Shot in DC

Headline USA Editor
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Federal Officer Shot in DC

(Headline USA) A U.S. Park Police officer was seriously wounded Monday evening in a shooting in Washington, federal law enforcement officials said.

The unidentified officer was airlifted by U.S. Park Police helicopter to an area hospital, said Vito Maggiolo, public information officer for the the D.C. Fire and Emergency Medical Service Department. He said the call came in about 7:30 p.m.

The officer was shot in the shoulder and is in serious but stable condition, according to a law enforcement official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to publicly discuss the matter. Authorities have identified a suspect but the person is not in custody, the official said.

The U.S. Park Police confirmed in an email that the officer was in “non-life-threatening condition.”

Park Police said the shooting took place in the District’s Southeast quadrant, close to the border with Maryland.

Federal officials said they were assisting in the investigation.

“I’ve spoken to Mayor Bowser and Police Chief Carroll and was briefed on the shooting,” Attorney General Pam Bondi said in a posting on X.

FBI Director Kash Patel said in his own X post that he was “Praying for the Park Police officer shot in Washington, D.C. The FBI is actively supporting the investigation alongside our law enforcement partners and will bring those responsible to justice.”

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

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