(José Niño, Headline USA) For the first time in 50 years, more people are reportedly leaving the United States than arriving.
The Washington Post reported that economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson of the Brookings Institution, in addition to Stan Veuger of the American Enterprise Institute, project in a forthcoming paper that “for the year as a whole, we think it’s likely [immigration] will be negative. It certainly would be the first time in more than 50 years.”
Policies from the Trump administration have apparently caused this shift in migrant inflows. The Trump administration’s immigration crackdown began in earnest in early 2025, with the southern border nearly closing, the revocation of protections for migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela, and the end of most refugee admissions.
On top of that, the administration has imposed fines on illegal aliens who fail to leave, while offering free flights and $1,000 to those who self-deport using a government app. The administration’s goal is to remove up to 1 million migrants this year, with a Republican-backed bill proposing $150 billion for immigration enforcement.
The changes are becoming visible nationwide, but their effects are especially acute in cities and states with large immigrant workforces, such as California, Florida, and major urban centers.
For example, the Washington Post reported that in Boca Raton, Florida the Toby & Leon Cooperman Sinai Residences retirement community has laid off more than 10 workers from Haiti and Cuba. CEO Rachel Blumberg anticipating the loss of nearly 40 staff by August as temporary protections are revoked. “We are heartbroken. Their sudden removal is both destabilizing and deeply unjust,” Blumberg stated.
She added that labor costs are expected to rise by $600,000 annually as she tries to attract new workers by offering higher wages. “Unfortunately, higher costs will be passed on to the residents of every senior living facility in the entire country that’s affected.”
This slowdown in migration is not confined to Florida. Across the country, industries like agriculture, construction, and hospitality, which heavily depend on immigrant labor, are already feeling significant pain.
The foreign-born workforce has fallen by over 1 million people since March 2025, per Labor Department data.
Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler has pointed to a slowdown in labor supply. She has warned about potential inflationary pressures by the end of 2025, though she cautioned that there is little evidence of broad wage increases as of now. Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, echoed these misgivings: “You take those people away at a time when demographics are resulting in a lack of replacement for retired workers—all that’s a recipe for higher inflation.”
Some economists contend that a prolonged decline in immigration could limit economic growth, as fewer workers reduce economic output. The workforce is already aging, and without sufficient replacement, the risk of inflation rises according to their analysis.
“It’s not about deportations so much,” said Veuger. “It’s really just that inflows are down so much; not just at the southern border, but also through various legal programs.”
José Niño is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino
