(Ken Silva, Headline USA) The Congressional Budget Office released its annual U.S. demographics report on Monday, revealing dismal projections that the American deathrate will exceed the birthrate by 2033, and that immigration will account for any population growth thereafter.
According to the CBO, the U.S. population is projected to increase from 350 million people in 2025 to 372 million in 2055. However, immigration will account for all the increases after 2033.
“Without immigration, the population would shrink beginning in 2033, in part because fertility rates are projected to remain too low for a generation to replace itself,” the CBO said. “Immigration is projected to more than account for the population growth from 2033 to 2055.”
The Congressional Budget Office released its annual U.S. demographics report on Monday, revealing dismal projections that the American deathrate will exceed the birthrate by 2033, and that immigration will account for any population growth thereafter. pic.twitter.com/ES4PrYLXJF
— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) January 14, 2025
According to the Wall Street Journal, the new CBO projections are a major change from previous forecasts that the birthrate would exceed the deathrate until 2040.
“The expected drop reflects the fact that Americans are having fewer children. Last year, the CBO projected the fertility rate—the number of children the average woman is expected to have over her lifetime—would hold steady at 1.7 through 2054,” the Journal reported Tuesday.
“But procreation hasn’t recovered much from the pandemic: In 2023, the latest year for which data are available, the U.S. fertility rate was a hair above 1.6, prompting the CBO to lower its long-run fertility projection to that level.”
The CBO also made a downward revision to its immigration forecasts, presumably due to Donald Trump’s victory.
According to the CBO, net migration increased by 920,000 per year under Trump’s term, and increased to around a whopping 3 million per year under Joe Biden. In the long run, the CBO estimates that immigration will continue to grow at a rate of 0.04% annually, indefinitely.
“Many of CBO’s projections are based on past long-term averages. CBO projects that net immigration of people in the other-foreign-national category will continue to decline after 2024, reaching a level consistent with historical experience in 2028 and remaining at roughly that level through the rest of the 30-year projection period,” the CBO said.
Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/jd_cashless.
