(Dmytro “Henry” Aleksandrov, Headline USA) Pollster Nate Silver, the founder of ABC’s FiveThirtyEight, said that there will be “some further decline” in Joe Biden’s poll numbers, considering that postdebate surveys are published in the days and even weeks ahead.
Silver’s “2024 Silver Bulletin presidential election forecast” tipped slightly in Donald Trump’s favor on the evening of July 1, 2024, after the first batch of postdebate polls were released. In his latest update, the pollster said that the results proved to be “mostly poor for Joe Biden.”
In Silver’s model’s national polling average, Trump leads Biden by 2.7%. Biden’s win probability dropped to 28%, down from 35% on debate night, per the forecast. Silver added that he thinks that polls would not radically change.
“Our guess is that more likely than not, there’s some further decline ahead: the model is trying to figure out whether this is random noise, but instead it’s almost certainly caused by a challenging first debate for Biden. It’s not great news for [Biden],” he wrote.
Silver also posted a model on the same day, showing that Trump now has a 71.9% chance of winning the election. Biden, on the other hand, dropped from 34.7% to 27.6%.
7/1 model update.
Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden. pic.twitter.com/lSESmUd4JZ
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2024
The Decision Desk HQ’s national polling average stated that Trump and Biden remain neck and neck, with Trump leading by 0.9%, according to The Hill.
A recent poll by Harvard CAPS Harris also showed that Trump was heavily favored to win the election after soaring by 6% after the head-to-head.
Many Trump-hating leftists were not very glad about the recent news, Blaze Media reported.
“I’m going to go home tonight, kiss my kid and wife goodnight, pour a stiff drink and have a quiet cry,” anti-Trump political strategist Mike Murphy said.
The results of the polls came after Biden’s disastrous performance during last week’s debate that caused panic among many Democrats, resulting in people suggesting that Biden should be replaced with someone else who is not so old and senile.
Since then, the Biden campaign and the White House tried to calm fellow leftists down by reassuring them that it would be better to keep Biden in the race.
