(José Niño, Headline USA) In a move aimed at rewarding merit and experience, the Trump administration is planning to eliminate the H-1B lottery and allocate visas by offered wages.
This move comes after much debate over whether the traditional lottery system, in place for years to handle overwhelming demand, is still fit for purpose. According to a report by Forbes, the core of the initiative centers on shifting from a randomly chosen annual cap for skilled foreign workers—65,000 slots, with an additional 20,000 set aside for advanced degree holders at U.S. institutions—to an approach based on the salaries employers are willing to pay.
Under the model proposed near the end of Trump’s earlier term, U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services would prioritize candidates with the highest salaries.
Commenters have sounded the alarm about the potential consequences of this change. Critics say the plan threatens to sideline talented international students and early-career professionals, who typically enter the workforce at lower pay scales.
One stakeholder remarked that ”Congress spoke directly and clearly by stating that H-1B petitions were subject to a numerical limit and would be considered not by order of skill or wage levels… but by any other prioritizing criterion other than filing order.” These comments were echoed by major business and education organizations, which argue that the statutory intent of the program does not support the proposed overhaul.
The timeline for these reforms remains fluid. The Office of Management and Budget is currently reviewing the proposed rule, which could be cleared for publication in the weeks ahead. There is lingering uncertainty over whether this iteration will mirror the earlier version published by the Department of Homeland Security in January 2021.
That earlier version spelled out a selection process that would let the government rank applications by how the offered wage compared to federal employment statistics, moving sequentially from the most senior wage levels to the entry-level pay brackets. Some worry these distinctions could disadvantage entire groups of applicants, especially recent graduates and those in education or research roles.
When the Biden administration arrived, it chose not to implement the final Trump-era rule. Now, the revival of this policy, or some reimagined version of it, feels all the more significant. As economist Mark Regets observed, “Weighting would suggest giving a higher probability of being selected for certain applicants, but everyone would still have some chance at being selected.” He points out that a weighted lottery could give someone making $200,000 twice the chance to win the visa lottery compared to a candidate making $100,000.
Looking forward, the public will have the chance to comment once the rule is officially published. If no court intervenes, this new selection system could be in place before the government runs its annual H-1B lottery in March 2026.
José Niño is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino
