Gov. Gavin Newsom received alarming news on Wednesday about his campaign to defeat a recall election: Californians want him removed by an 11-point margin, SFGate reported.
Survey USA and the San Diego Tribune found that 51% of Californians want Newsom removed as opposed to 40% who want him to remain governor.
According to state rules, if Newsom fails to get an outright majority of the vote, he will be recalled, even if he receives the largest plurality, and the next-highest candidate will become governor.
The results have shifted by more than 20 points since May, when a Survey USA/San Diego Tribune poll found that 36% of Californians backed the recall while 47% opposed it.
The Survey USA/San Diego Tribune poll’s methodology favors Newsom more than other mainstream polls because it did not weight responses from likely voters.
The UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll found a sharp disparity in results when using these two methods.
Californians opposed Newsom’s recall by more than 10 points, but responses from likely voters resulted in a statistical tie, SFGate reported.
Polls weighted toward likely voters tend to produce more accurate results in recall elections because Republicans feel motivated to remove Newsom from office, while Democrats have reported little desire to vote to retain him.
Polls of the general population also might include ineligible voters, with non-citizens already constituting more than a quarter of California’s overall population even before the Biden administration implemented its current open-borders policy.
However the degree to which eligibility will be a hurdle for motivated voters remains unclear as state the plans to issue ballots indiscriminately, setting the stage for massive mail-in fraud in the Sept. 14 special election.
Every voter will be sent a vote-by-mail ballot for the #2021CARecall. You can return your ballot by mail via USPS with pre-paid postage or you can use the in-person voting options available for all California voters coming soon. #VoteSafeCA pic.twitter.com/IbHrgk77Ti
— CA SOS Vote (@CASOSvote) August 4, 2021
Some have reported that the state even intends to roll out an option of print-from-home ballots, which would make subsequent audits virtually impossible.
Don’t believe me about the print from home option in the #RecallNewsom election?
“This will also be available to ALL voters” for the recall election. @larryelder @nettermike @KevinKileyCA @RubinReport @RichardGrenell pic.twitter.com/NRRZwOvxra
— Jeff Dornik (@JeffTheGK) August 6, 2021
A MIXED BAG FOR GOP
The new poll’s results came in before Wednesday’s recall debate.
Although the poll showed good news for Newsom’s opponents, Republican candidates did not fare well.
YouTube star Kevin “Meet Kevin” Paffrath earned 27% support in the poll, beating all other declared Republicans. If Newsom is recalled and Paffrath wins, the recall may prove a disaster for Republicans.
Larry Elder, who did not participate in Wednesday’s debate, received 23% support in the poll.
Most other polls have Elder winning handily, like the Inside California Politics and Emerson College poll that found him besting all other candidates by 10 points. Paffrath garnered a meager 2% support, Newsweek reported.
Newsom’s reluctant return to embracing COVID hysteria—from which he temporarily distanced himself this summer—may be responsible for the increased support for his recall across most polls, SFGate reported.
Headline USA’s Ben Sellers contributed to this report.
