(Money Metals News Service) Charlotte McLeod of Investing News Network sat down with Stefan Gleason, President and CEO of Money Metals Exchange, for their first conversation of 2026.

The discussion covered silver’s historic breakout, extreme market dislocations, refining bottlenecks, COMEX inventories, Federal Reserve policy, and a surge in state and federal sound money legislation.

After six months of dramatic price action, Gleason’s message was straightforward.

Buckle up.

A Historic Silver Breakout — and Violent Correction

Since their previous conversation, silver has delivered one of the most dramatic moves in modern market history. The metal surged through its 45-year high near $50, briefly touching $54 as a breakout level before racing as high as $120 in December and January.

That explosive advance was followed by a severe correction. Gleason believes the drop on January 31, roughly 28 percent in a single session, was the largest one-day decline in silver’s history. Even the 2011 selloff unfolded over a longer stretch.

Silver later plunged to $64 before rebounding into the high-$70 range, where it currently trades. Gleason is watching technical levels in the low to mid-$70s to determine whether the correction has fully run its course. Despite the volatility, silver remains slightly higher on the year.

Gold has also corrected, though far less dramatically. The yellow metal has more than doubled over the past three years and continues to show structural strength. Gleason describes the current phase as a repair period and believes higher prices could return later in 2026, possibly by summer.

Volatility, however, is now firmly part of the picture.

Retail Market Awakening in the US — Dealer Perspective

From a dealer’s vantage point, the past few months have been extraordinary.

Gleason explains that US retail demand had been relatively quiet since the regional bank crisis of early 2023. Gold’s advance during that period was largely driven by central bank buying and demand outside the United States. In fact, US dealers saw significant gold selling as investors took advantage of higher prices, which compressed premiums and created local oversupply.

Silver changed the dynamic.

As the metal accelerated in late summer, September, and October, retail interest flipped dramatically. December and January became what Gleason described as total pandemonium. Major dealers, including Money Metals Exchange and its two or three similarly sized competitors, experienced intense pressure. Websites posted delay notices. Call volume surged into the hundreds or thousands per hour.

Importantly, the market was highly active in both directions. Investors were buying aggressively, particularly silver, while others were selling back metal at $80, $90, $110, and even $120 price levels. That created crushing two-way volume that required physical inspection, camera verification, testing, and large-scale shipping operations.

Gleason estimates that perhaps only 1 to 2 percent of the US public owns physical gold and silver. If that participation rises to 4, 6, or 8 percent, the existing retail infrastructure would struggle to keep up.

He believes an awakening has begun.

Refining Bottlenecks and Market Strain

A major driver of recent distortions has been severe refining backlogs.

More than 50 percent of global silver refining capacity is located in China. US refining capacity is limited, and most refiners have been heavily backlogged for at least a year. Many are restricting acceptance to long-standing or large customers. Some are declining certain types of scrap altogether.

Gold faces similar challenges, though to a lesser degree.

The surge in both price and volume has dramatically increased the value of metal sitting inside refinery pipelines. That has strained financing arrangements and hedging programs. Lease rates and hedging costs have spiked. At one point in October, silver lease rates reached approximately 30 cents per ounce per day. That put enormous pressure on short positions and those financing inventory.

The ripple effects have been significant. Scrap dealers and local coin shops, particularly undercapitalized ones, have struggled because refiners are delaying payment until the end of the refining process instead of advancing funds upon receipt.

This has created unusual pricing distortions. Ninety percent silver coins are trading at steep discounts, sometimes $10 to $15 below spot, because refiners cannot easily process them, and new retail buyers often prefer .999 fine silver. Gleason argues that 90 percent silver may be one of the most cost-effective ways to acquire silver in the current environment.

International Arbitrage and Physical Tightness

Global dislocations have intensified the strain.

In October, COMEX futures traded below London spot prices, creating rare arbitrage opportunities. At the same time, premiums in Dubai and India surged. Indian buyers were urgently seeking physical metal.

Money Metals shipped several hundred thousand ounces of silver to Dubai to meet Indian demand. Gleason describes that period as highly urgent and opportunistic for those positioned to move metal internationally.

Chinese demand has also played a visible role. For months, silver frequently moved higher as markets opened Sunday night in Asia. While Gleason cautions that online reports sometimes exaggerate Chinese premiums, he estimates they have often been in the $2 to $4 range. That is sufficient to draw metal eastward when transportation and financing costs are lower.

Economics ultimately drives the flow. When premiums in China or Dubai exceed logistics costs, silver leaves the United States.

COMEX Inventories Under Pressure

COMEX silver inventories rose from roughly 300 million ounces to more than 500 million ounces during earlier pricing distortions. They have since declined to under 400 million ounces.

The registered category, which represents metal available for delivery, recently dipped below 100 million ounces. That level has drawn considerable attention.

Gleason stops short of predicting an imminent default. Most futures contracts settle financially rather than physically. Still, he confirms that substantial metal is being removed from the exchange, including by Money Metals.

He describes the system as functioning but under pressure. Continued arbitrage toward Asia could accelerate the drain if premiums persist.

What Could Trigger the Next Leg Higher — Gold and Silver

Looking ahead, Gleason believes a stock market downturn could serve as a catalyst for gold.

Silver sometimes suffers during equity corrections, but he expects it to hold up better than in previous cycles due to strong physical demand and constrained supply. He would not want to be short either metal in the current environment.

Structural trends also support his view. Gold has become the number one reserve asset for central banks, surpassing the euro and now rivaling or exceeding the US dollar (Federal Reserve Notes). Dedollarization and deglobalization reduce the incentive for foreign governments to hold dollar reserves.

Those shifts are long-term and ongoing.

Federal Reserve Policy — A Hawkish Fed Is a Fiction

With Jerome Powell’s term ending and Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Federal Reserve chair, Gleason questions the narrative of a truly hawkish Fed.

He argues that the Federal Reserve is inherently inflationary due to the scale of debt embedded in the system. In his view, the institution is designed to create inflation rather than restrain it.

Gleason recounts asking Warsh directly whether the US government is involved in the gold market. Warsh’s response suggested involvement exists, though perhaps less than many assume. He emphasized currency stability and the role of the IMF.

As for interest rates in 2026, Gleason expects political pressure for lower rates to prevail.

Sound Money Momentum and Legislative Battles

Money Metals has supported the Sound Money Defense League for roughly 13 to 14 years. When the effort began, about 20 states imposed sales tax on bullion purchases. Today, only five states remain. Fourteen states have eliminated income taxes on gold and silver sales.

States including Utah, Wyoming, Ohio, Texas, and Idaho have advanced gold reserve initiatives. Texas public pension funds already hold gold.

At the federal level, Senator Mike Lee and Representative Thomas Massie have introduced legislation to audit US gold reserves. The proposal would require disclosure of any swaps, leases, pledges, or IMF-related encumbrances.

Gleason notes that 70 to 75 percent of US gold reserves are in 90 percent purity coin melt bars originating from the 1930s. These bars are not globally market-acceptable in their current form and would require refining into .9999 gold. Given present refining constraints, that could take years.

Another proposed measure, known as the SILVER Act, seeks to expand exchange-approved depositories beyond the roughly 150-mile radius around New York, where most exchange-backed gold and silver is currently concentrated. Gleason argues that geographic concentration increases systemic risk and reduces competition.

At the same time, he warns against certain state-level proposals that would place governments in the middle of gold custody, sales, or payment systems through public-private partnerships. In his view, more government involvement in the gold industry undermines the principles that attract investors to precious metals in the first place.

Not every gold bill, he cautions, is a good one.

Buckle Up — A New Reality for Silver

After silver breached the $50 level for the first time in 45 years, Gleason believes the market may be entering a new structural phase. He aligns with analysts such as Michael Oliver, who suggest silver could be moving into a different long-term reality.

The path forward will not be straight. Corrections will be sharp. Volatility will remain elevated.

But as central banks accumulate gold, physical demand tightens silver markets, and US retail participation grows beyond the current 1 to 2 percent ownership base, Gleason sees a broader realization taking shape.

The rest of the world may already understand what is happening. The United States, he suggests, is beginning to catch up.