(Ken Silva, Headline USA) Friday’s unadjusted jobs report said the U.S. lost 2.5 million jobs last month, but the adjusted report said the country gained 517,000 jobs—a disparity that had some economists questioning the veracity of data released by the U.S. government.
With employers typically laying off workers immediately after the holidays, January jobs reports are often dismal. Number crunchers at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics adjust for this annual layoff spree and for other population factors, ostensibly to give a more accurate picture of what’s actually going on in the economy.
On the heels of last week’s unexpectedly rosy report, Biden is expected to continue gaslighting the public about the robust, not-at-all-recession-like economy during Tuesday’s State of the Union Address.
However, the BLS adjustments have some investors asking questions.
Financial commentator Peter Schiff, who gained fame for accurately forecasting the mid-2000s housing crisis, juxtaposed the recent jobs report with the other recent economic data—including daily layoff announcements, CEOs bracing for a recession and a collapsing money supply.
“These two sets of data points are not a little different. They are at the polar ends of the spectrum,” Schiff stated on his website Saturday.
“How can anyone look at the environment and then take such a job report seriously?” he asked. “This is the type of job report you would see at the height of an economic cycle where the economy is firing on all cylinders.”
Schiff is not alone on this issue.
“If it seems too good to be true, that’s because it is too good to be true—the gain is mostly due to seasonal factors and revisions to past data,” economists Anna Wong and Eliza Winger reportedly told Bloomberg.
Nonetheless, Bloomberg’s analysis noted that even if the U.S. economy lost 2.5 million jobs—as the unadjusted report states—that would still be the one of the strongest Januarys in decades.
Other financial forecasters—including Jennifer Lee, a senior economist for BMO Capital Markets—likewise took the jobs report with a grain of optimism.
“We can’t completely dismiss all of these data. We can’t blame it on the seasonals,” Lee said. “Breaking it down by industry, it’s pretty safe to say there’s wall-to-wall strength.”
Either way, more bad news has followed Friday’s report. Dell announced plans Monday to cut about 6,650 jobs.
According to Layoffs.fyi—which tracks layoffs in the tech sectors—more than 88,000 workers in the tech economy have lost their jobs already this year. More than 159,000 were lost last year, according to the site.
Ken Silva is a staff writer at Headline USA. Follow him at twitter.com/jd_cashless.
