(Money Metals News Service) In a recent episode of the Money Metals Midweek Memo, host Mike Maharrey argues that gold near $5,300 and silver around $115 are not just headline prices but warning signals.
These are telltale warning signals of weakening fiat currency, ballooning debt, shifting global confidence in U.S. financial stability, and a mainstream portfolio rotation into precious metals that could intensify the bull market.
A storm, a travel week, and a warning about forecasting
Mike Maharrey had just returned home to the Tampa Bay area after traveling to northern Kentucky for a funeral and getting caught in a major snowstorm.
Even Florida felt cold to him with temperatures in the 30s, but Kentucky was the real test. Forecasts swung between 8 inches and 24 inches before Covington, near Cincinnati, ended up with about 11 inches.
Maharrey uses the forecasting chaos as a metaphor. Weather is hard to predict in real time because small shifts change outcomes, and he argues markets and the economy work the same way.
Bank of America hit $5,000 gold and moved to $6,000
Maharrey points to an October call from Bank of America that raised its 2026 gold forecast to $5,000 an ounce, up from roughly the $4,500 range. He says that as of January 23, gold was already over $5,000, and that morning it was around $5,287.
He adds that silver was at $114. He also says analysts he respected had long argued that once silver cracked $50, it would accelerate, and he believes that is what played out.
With $5,000 already reached, Maharrey says Bank of America increased its projection again and is now calling for $6,000 gold this year. He cites Bank of America analyst Michael Hartnett, who looked at past bull markets and noted an average gain of 300% over 43 months, implying $6,000 by the spring as a rough benchmark.
High prices do not end bull markets
Maharrey leans on comments from Michael Whitmer, Bank of America’s head of metals research. Whitmer argues bull markets do not end simply because prices reach levels that feel high to investors.
Instead, Whitmer says the bull case fades when the fundamentals shift. Maharrey stresses that the current fundamentals are not easing, and he lists de-dollarization, central bank gold buying, inflation pressures, monetary easing, geopolitics, and U.S. debt as forces that remain in place.
Whitmer also frames gold as overbought but still underinvested, meaning ownership is low relative to what portfolios could hold. Maharrey argues that matters more than the headline price, because incremental adoption can move demand sharply in a tight market.
The 60/20/20 portfolio and the under-1% reality
Maharrey says mainstream finance is starting to talk about gold in a way he rarely heard in the past. He cites Morgan Stanley CIO Michael Wilson, who suggested investors consider abandoning the traditional 60/40 portfolio and using a 60/20/20 allocation with 20% in precious metals.
Maharrey calls that idea unprecedented, coming from a major Wall Street voice. He adds that Whitmer said the 60/20/20 concept makes sense and that analysis since 2020 could justify a gold share above 20%, even 30% at the moment.
Then Maharrey delivers what he treats as the key statistic. He says the average western investor holds less than 1% of their portfolio in gold, and even a small shift higher would represent enormous new demand.
Supply constraints and why shuffling metal is not the fix
Maharrey returns to a theme he has stressed on previous shows, which is tight supply in the silver market. He argues the issue is not solved by moving inventory between hubs like New York, London, or China, because the real problem is that there is not enough metal.
He says Whitmer expects supply constraints could also matter more for gold going forward. Whitmer forecasts that 13 major North American gold miners will produce 19.2 million ounces this year, which would be a 2% decline from 2025.
Whitmer also believes many mine output forecasts are too optimistic. Maharrey says gold is a larger market than silver, but he argues that any tightening still adds pressure in a bull market that is already accelerating.
The grocery store mindset and FOMO in metals
Maharrey describes a stop at the grocery store while traveling in Kentucky before the storm hit. He saw familiar panic buying with basics like bread and water disappearing, and he says people tend to prepare only when the threat is right in front of them.
He compares that behavior to what he sees in gold and silver now. As prices rise and attention grows, more people feel fear of missing out and begin acting late instead of preparing early.
Maharrey also suggests it is not only FOMO. He thinks many people intuitively sense that the metals market is signaling something deeper about the financial system.
Stop asking what is driving gold and ask what it means
Maharrey says people keep asking what is driving gold and silver higher, and he runs through the usual list of explanations. He does not deny demand or the common macro factors, but he says the better question is why this is happening now.
To explain the difference, he shares a personal story about experiencing chest palpitations. Because he has an artificial heart valve, he feared it was failing, but it turned out to be stress and anxiety.
His point is that symptoms can have wildly different causes, and the job is to interpret what the symptom is really telling you. He argues the metals surge is a symptom of a larger problem, not just a story about price momentum.
Fiat currency, debt, and the message of $5,000 gold
Maharrey’s diagnosis is direct. He says fiat currency, especially the dollar, is collapsing, and that the system is built on a tower of debt that is becoming unstable.
He clarifies that he does not expect an overnight shift where the U.S. wakes up as Zimbabwe tomorrow. He frames it as a slower breakdown that still matters because it steadily destroys purchasing power.
In that view, gold and silver are not simply “going up.” They are reflecting a declining confidence in paper money and the long-term consequences of debt, deficits, and monetary expansion.
Rick Rule on a bull market that began in 2000
Maharrey references an interview with Rick Rule of Rule Investment Media. Rule argues the gold bull market did not start two years ago, and instead began in 2000 as purchasing power eroded under negative real interest rates and rising government debt.
Rule also argues a bond bear market has been underway since 2000, and Maharrey says the bond side matters as much as gold. He points to persistently high yields as evidence of weak demand for government debt, even when policymakers want rates lower.
Maharrey highlights an example Rule cited involving a Danish pension fund divesting U.S. Treasuries. The fund’s spokesperson said it was rooted in poor U.S. government finances and driven by ever-increasing U.S. debt and decades of overspending, along with a need to rethink liquidity and risk management.
Maharrey frames that as de-dollarization in action. He also mentions renewed talk in Germany about pulling German gold out of New York, arguing these moves reflect international wariness toward U.S. fiscal and policy risk.
The debt math and the inflation tax
Maharrey says the national debt eclipsed $38 trillion last October, and he argues the federal government continues to run large deficits month after month. He also cites Rule’s estimate that the net present value of unfunded entitlement liabilities exceeds $120 trillion, including Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and federal pensions.
Rule’s conclusion, as Maharrey presents it, is that the government leans on the inflation tax. Maharrey says this is how obligations get “met” over time, because liabilities are effectively reduced in real terms as the currency weakens.
He stresses that this is why price is the wrong obsession. The deeper issue is value, meaning what the dollar can actually buy.
What Money Metals is seeing right now
Maharrey says many dealers are dealing with inventory shortages, particularly in silver. He says Money Metals still has gold and silver inventory available, but there have been shipping delays and longer phone wait times due to demand.
He says the company has hired over 50+ people since Christmas to keep up. He also mentions a monthly accumulation plan that allows people to start building a position with as little as $100.
He closes with the insurance analogy. You usually cannot buy insurance when the house is already on fire, but he argues that precious metals still offer a window to act even after prices rise, because the underlying issue is purchasing power erosion, not a simple trading move.
