While pundits projected Democrats would gain a decisive advantage in early voting, President Donald Trump is keeping pace with Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden in three key swing states, according to multiple polls.
Voting has begun in several states, and data out of Michigan, Wisconsin and Ohio prove that registered Republicans are turning out for Trump at the same rate as registered Democrats, according to the Washington Examiner.
In Michigan, 40% of the 1 million early ballots that have been submitted are from Democrats, and 40% are from Republicans.
In Wisconsin, 40% of the 711,855 early ballots that have been submitted are from Democrats, and 38% are from Republicans.
More Republicans than Democrats have voted early in Ohio, with 45% of the 475,259 ballot returns coming from Republicans, and 43% coming from Democrats.
The data seem to suggest that Democratic voters aren’t the only ones coming up with alternative plans for casting their ballot amid the ongoing coronavirus panic.
However, Republicans are still behind in Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania—states Trump needs to win, and states Trump will win, according to Susie Wiles, Trump’s campaign director in Florida.
“Voting in Florida is a marathon. And what you’re seeing is a bit of a sprint from the Democrats,” Wiles said.
“But we have far more high-propensity voters on our side,” she continued. “That should be noted in all the hype about the Democrats’ lead. We’re not finished. We’re turning our sights to early in-person voting and to Election Day.”
These numbers also do not take into account actual Election Day turnout, which Trump is currently leading.
More than 63% of those who plan to vote in person on Election Day have said they plan to vote for Trump, according to an Axios survey last month.
Biden has been leading Trump in the national polls for months, but a RealClearPolitics average of battleground polling shows that Trump is actually performing better than he did in 2016 in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Florida, North Carolina and Arizona.
He won those states to the shock of many four years ago, even though Hillary Clinton had a sizable pre-election polling lead in several of the states.
Meanwhile, Biden is performing poorly in states where Clinton did well four years ago. In Wisconsin, Michigan, and in North Carolina, Biden is polling worse than Clinton did — and Trump won all of those states in 2016.
Nationally, Trump is doing better than expected too. He has cut Biden’s 12-point lead in half over the past week, according to a recent Rasmussen survey.
In Rasmussen’s latest poll, Biden has only a five point lead. Compare this to last week, when Biden led Trump by 12 points, 52% to 40%.
— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 14, 2020
Even Biden’s team has admitted that Trump will do better than the polls anticipate.
“There’s a big wave of Republicans coming. And frankly, that’s a data point that a lot of people tweeting about this fail to realize,” said Steve Schale, the head of the pro-Biden super PAC Unite the Country.
“The numbers are pretty staggering for us, and the return rates and the polling look good,” he said. “But there’s just a lot we don’t know.”