Lawmakers Travel Freely While TSA Goes Unpaid

(Luis CornelioHeadline USA) Members of Congress may not see eye to eye on much, but one thing drew bipartisan consensus: a two-week recess amid a Democrat-led DHS shutdown.

Democrat and Republican lawmakers alike faced backlash after leaving Washington, D.C., this weekend for a 14-day break tied to the Passover and Easter holidays, even as half of all DHS workers went unpaid.

The backlash came as Democrats continued refusing to fund DHS unless ICE is handicapped, fueling a shutdown now in its 44th day.

Among those drawing the most attention were Rep. Robert Garcia, D-Calif., who was spotted at a Las Vegas casino, and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who appeared at Disney World.

Other lawmakers also drew scrutiny, with Sen. Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., seen being escorted through airport security and Sens. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, and Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., seen seated on flights

Photos published by TMZ showed Garcia at the Fontainebleau Las Vegas, standing near a bar with a friend.

A bystander approached Garcia to ask if he was enjoying himself before being shooed away by two bodyguards.

According to TMZ, Garcia told the guards the photos did not bother him.

Garcia later took to X, claiming he was visiting his parents in Las Vegas: “Actually I don’t mind what tmz is doing here. Like the story says my dad has lived in Vegas for 15 years and I had just finished lunch with him. I try to see him whenever I can.”

He also tried to shift blame to House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., saying he “should have never sent us all home.”

The recess, however, had been scheduled in advance.

Graham, for his part, defended his visit to Disney World’s Magic Kingdom, calling it a business trip.

It remains unclear whether the recess will continue as President Trump has called on lawmakers to return to Washington and make a deal.

Tiger Woods Pleads Not Guilty to DUI

(Headline USA) Tiger Woods entered a not guilty plea in his driving under the influence case in Florida on Tuesday, hours after a sheriff’s report said he had pain pills and showed signs of impairment at the scene of the crash last week.

The online court docket for Martin County, Florida, showed Woods entered a written plea of not guilty and planned to waive his appearance during an arraignment hearing next month.

Woods’ eyes were bloodshot and glassy, his pupils dilated and he had opioid pills in his pocket when interviewed at the scene of the crash, according to the arrest report released by the Martin County Sheriff’s Office.

Woods’ movements were slow and lethargic, he was sweating as he talked to deputies and told them he had taken prescription medication earlier in the morning, according to the report. Woods told deputies he had been looking at his phone and fiddling with the radio before he clipped a truck in front of him, the report said.

Deputies found two white pills, which were identified as the opioid hydrocodone used to treat pain, in his pocket, the report said.

When asked by a deputy if he took any prescription medications, Woods said, “I take a few.”

Woods’ agent at Excel Sports, Mark Steinberg, has not responded to multiple messages seeking comment.

The golfer was traveling at high speeds on a beachside, residential road on Jupiter Island when his Land Rover clipped the truck and rolled onto its side, according to the sheriff’s office, which noted Woods showed signs of impairment.

The truck had $5,000 in damage, according to the report.

The truck driver and another person helped Woods out of his vehicle, with the golfer needing to climb out from the passenger side. Neither Woods nor the truck driver were injured.

During a field sobriety test, deputies noticed Woods limping and that he had a compression sock over his right knee. The golfer explained he had undergone seven back surgeries and over 20 leg operations and that his ankle seizes up while walking. 

Woods, who was hiccupping during the questioning, continuously moved his head during one of the sobriety tests and deputies had to instruct him several times to keep his head straight, the report said.

“Based on my observations of Woods, how he performed the exercises and based on my training, knowledge, and experience, I believed that Woods normal faculties were impaired, and he was unable to safely operate the motor vehicle,” the deputy wrote after the tests.

Woods, 50, is the most influential figure in golf and has become as recognizable as any athlete in the world. The first person of Black heritage to win the Masters in 1997, he has captivated golf fans with records likely never to be broken.

But his injuries kept him from accomplishing more, including those suffered in a 2021 car crash that damaged his right leg so badly he said doctors considered amputation.

At this latest crash, Woods agreed to a Breathalyzer test that showed no signs of alcohol, but he refused a urine test, authorities said. He was arrested and released on bail eight hours later.

No one from Woods’ camp or the PGA Tour — he is on the board and is chairman of the committee reshaping the competition model — have commented since his arrest.

Woods, who has been involved in many crashes over the years, is charged with driving under the influence with property damage and refusal to submit to a lawful test. He is scheduled for arraignment April 23. Online court records do not list an attorney for him.

Under a change to Florida law last year, refusing a law enforcement officer’s request to take a breath, blood or urine test became a misdemeanor, even for a first offense.

 

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

 

JD Vance Has a New Book About His Religious Faith, ‘Communion,’ Coming Out Later This Spring

(Headline USA) Vice President JD Vance has a new book coming out that will explore his religious faith and his conversion to Catholicism as an adult.

“Communion: Finding My Way Back to Faith” comes out June 16, the HarperCollins Publishers imprint Harper told The Associated Press on Tuesday. HarperCollins also released “Hillbilly Elegy,” the million-selling memoir from 2016 that helped make Vance a national figure.

“The story of how I regained my faith, of course, only happened because I had lost it to begin with,” Vance, 41, said in a statement.

“The interesting question that hangs over this book, and over my mind, is why I ever strayed from the path. Why the Christian faith of my youth failed to properly take root,” he wrote.

The announcement Tuesday is likely to ramp up speculation that Vance will seek the presidency in 2028 — a possibility the Republican vice president has said he’s not focused on right now, indicating he’d wait until after the 2026 midterm elections to decide on a campaign.

Presidential hopefuls often, though not always, release books before launching a campaign, giving them a moment in the spotlight before new audiences and a chance to crystallize their message embarking on a campaign. Already, potential 2028 candidates on the Democratic side have published books or are planning to roll them out this year, including Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, California Gov. Gavin Newsom and former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Vance wrote the 304-page “Communion” himself, according to his publisher, working on it off and on since 2019, and it will include material on his time in politics. Vice presidents from Walter Mondale to Mike Pence have published books, but Vance would be the first in recent memory to do so while in office.

In 2022, HarperCollins told the AP that Vance had set aside a planned religious memoir. Some of “Communion” is drawn from that project.

Vance has said he evolved from Christianity to atheism to Catholicism. He converted in 2019 and credits his new faith with giving him a sense of purpose he didn’t get through his education at Yale University or working in the financial industry.

“Hillbilly Elegy,” Vance’s memoir about his rural roots, was widely read upon its publication and only grew in popularity after Republican Donald Trump’s stunning presidential victory in 2016, when Democrats sought out the book as a way of understanding Trump’s appeal. Ron Howard adapted “Hillbilly Elegy” into a 2020 movie starring Glenn Close and Amy Adams.

Vance initially was a critic of Trump but became a close ally. He was elected to the Senate as a Republican from Ohio in 2022 and was chosen two years later by Trump as his running mate, becoming the youngest vice president since Richard Nixon served under President Dwight Eisenhower in the 1950s.

The news about Vance’s book followed Monday’s announcement by his wife, Usha Vance, that she has started a podcast called “Storytime with the Second Lady” to promote reading among children.

The Vances have three young children, and Usha Vance is pregnant with their fourth, a boy due in late July.

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

 

Marine Detained with Explosive Round

(Headline USA) A U.S. Marine was detained at a California airport after Transportation Security Administration personnel found a live 25 mm explosive round in his checked baggage, police said.

The round was found during the screening process of checked luggage at Palm Springs International Airport on Monday, the Palm Springs Police Department said in a news release.

The Marine told investigators he found the round “in the field” about a year ago and kept it, thinking it wasn’t live.

“Due to extensive rust and corrosion, the round’s original identifying paint markings were no longer visible, making it difficult to determine whether it was an inert training munition or a live explosive device,” police said in the news release.

The Riverside County Sheriff’s Department Explosive Ordnance Disposal Team used X-ray technology to confirm that it was a live round. The team took it to a desert area near Interstate 10, where it was destroyed, the news release said. No one was hurt.

Police said they submitted the case to the Riverside County District Attorney’s Office for a review of potential violations and criminal charges. An email seeking comment was sent to the district attorney’s office Tuesday.

The Marine, who was released to military authorities, could face administrative action by the Marine Corps and a potential civil penalty through the TSA, police said. Emails seeking comment were sent to both organizations.

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

Reality TV Star Held on 600K Bond

(Headline USA) A Florida judge on Tuesday ordered reality TV star Joseph Duggar held on a $600,000 bond following his arrest earlier this month on child molestation charges involving a child under the age of 12.

Judge Brantley Clark also barred Duggar, 31, from having unsupervised contact with any minor under 18.

Duggar, who starred with his parents and siblings in TLC’s “19 Kids and Counting,” was arrested March 18 in Tontitown, Arkansas, after police officers interviewed a 14-year-old girl who told them Duggar had molested her several times during a family trip to Panama City Beach, Florida, when she was 9.

The girl’s father told police in Arkansas that he confronted Duggar about the abuse, and Duggar admitted to it, an arrest affidavit said. Police officers in Tontitown had the father call Duggar with a detective on the line, and he again admitted to the actions, according to the affidavit.

Duggar waived his extradition to Florida, where he made his first appearance on the charges Tuesday morning. He remained in the Bay County Jail on Tuesday afternoon.

Duggar is charged with lewd and lascivious molestation on a child under 12, and lewd and lascivious contact. Albert Sauline, a lawyer listed on court records for Duggar, did not immediately return an email seeking comment.

Separately, authorities in Arkansas filed charges against Duggar and his wife, Kendra Duggar, 27, according to Tontitown police. The charges include four counts of endangering the welfare of a minor and four counts of false imprisonment. The Duggar family has not responded to requests for comment about the charges.

Duggar’s older brother Josh Duggar was convicted in 2022 of downloading child sexual abuse videos. He was sentenced to 12 1/2 years in prison.

TLC’s “19 Kids and Counting” followed the lives of devout Baptists Michelle and Jim Bob Duggar and their 19 children, all of whose names began with the letter “J.”

TLC canceled the show in 2015 following allegations that Josh Duggar had molested four of his sisters and a babysitter years earlier. Josh Duggar’s parents said he had confessed to the fondling and apologized.

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

Gas Prices Eclipse $4 a Gallon in the US, the Highest Since 2022

/tag/Tax(Headline USA) U.S. gas prices jumped past an average of $4 a gallon for the first time since 2022 on Tuesday, as the Iran war continues to push fuel prices higher worldwide.

According to AAA, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline is now $4.02 — over a dollar more expensive than it was before the war began on Feb. 28. That’s the largest monthly jump the motor club has seen on record. And the last time U.S. drivers were collectively paying this much at the pump was nearly four years ago, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The price is a national average, meaning drivers in some states have been paying well over $4 a gallon for a while now. Prices vary between states due to factors ranging from nearby supply to differing tax rates.

Since the U.S. and Israel launched the war against Iran a month ago, the cost of crude oil — the main ingredient in gasoline — has spiked and swung rapidly. That’s because the conflict has caused deep supply chain disruptions and cuts from major oil producers across the Middle East. Both Brent crude, the international standard, and benchmark U.S. crude are now going for more than $100 per barrel, up from roughly $70 before the war.

Motorists around the world are coping with higher gas prices. In Paris, for example, gas is at 2.34 euros per liter ($2.68), which is about $10.27 a gallon.

Higher gas prices arrive as many households continue to face wider cost of living strains. And as drivers pay more to cover necessities like gas, or even utility bills impacted by soaring fuel costs, many may be forced to cut their budgets in other places. That threatens broader consequences for the economy overall.

Before launching the war, President Donald Trump bragged about keeping gas prices low. Consumer prices and the cost of living already have become flashpoints in this midterm election year. A recent AP-NORC poll found that 45% of U.S. adults are “extremely” or “very” concerned about being able to afford gas in the next few months, up from 30% shortly after Trump won the 2024 presidential election.

Beyond visits to the pump, analysts say high fuel costs will trickle into groceries, which have to be restocked frequently and could also see price hikes as businesses’ transportation and packaging costs pile up. Other cargo has also been impacted. The U.S. Postal Service is seeking a temporary 8% added charge on some of its popular products including Priority Mail.

U.S. diesel, used for many freight and delivery trucks, is now going for an average of $5.45 a gallon, up from about $3.76 a gallon before the war began per AAA.

“It’s going to mean more expensive bills for truckers, tractors and trains that move the U.S. economy with diesel fuel. It’s going to mean consumers are likely greeted by rising grocery prices — and broadly speaking, a rise in U.S. inflation,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at fuel-tracking service GasBuddy.

It’s possible those prices could jump even higher. To Trump’s frustration, most tanker movement in the key Strait of Hormuz — where roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil once sailed through — remains at a halt. That’s led to cuts from producers in the region who have no way of getting their crude to market. Meanwhile, Iran, Israel and the U.S. have all struck oil and gas facilities, worsening supply concerns.

“I think it’s outrageous,” Kelly Gravlin said of gas prices while filling up her Toyota 4Runner at a Costco in Commerce Township, northwest of Detroit. She paid about $3.95 per gallon for regular unleaded Tuesday, with a final cost of $70.73.

“We’re in a war that we shouldn’t be in that’s, therefore, hiking up our prices,” said Gravlin. “From a president who ran on getting gas prices low.”

Alisa Howell, of Charlotte, North Carolina, normally fills up her tank entirely when she goes to the gas station. But now, she says just gets enough fuel to do what she needs to do each day.

Howell hopes gas prices will go down as Trump once promised, but stressed that the “foolishness with the government” continues to impact peoples’ livelihoods. She blamed the administration for making the decision to attack Iran, adding that she doesn’t believe it was worth going to war.

“It’s just unfair to all of us. It doesn’t matter if you’re Democrat or Republican. It’s everybody,” Howell said.

Many drivers are on the hunt for cheaper prices where they can find them. Danielle Ervin, of Novi, Michigan, stopped at a local Speedway station Tuesday morning because it offers an 11 cent per gallon discount.

Still, overall, Ervin said what she pays now is “terrible.” She noted she’s had to cut other parts of her budget.

“I had to cut back on some of my streaming services at home, so the kids are a little upset about that. I had to change which grocery stores I buy my fruits and veggies at,” Ervin said. “And then, I’m not buying stuff for myself — sneakers and clothes and all that other stuff — because I have to maintain for the household.”

Despite some efforts from governments worldwide to boost supply, including tapping into emergency oil stockpiles, steep prices remain. Analysts like De Haan reiterate that all eyes are on the Strait of Hormuz — noting that if the waterway remains blocked for long enough, U.S. gasoline could climb toward $4.50 a gallon on average, or even approach the previous $5 record.

A lot of factors contribute to what consumers pay at the pump. While expensive oil is the leading driver behind today’s surge, U.S. gas prices typically tick up a bit at this time of year. More drivers are hitting the road for spring break and trying to fuel up while they can, so there’s higher demand. Warming weather brings a shift to summer blend fuel, which is more expensive to produce than winter blend.

And again, some states always have higher prices than others. On Tuesday, per AAA, California had the highest average at nearly $5.89 for a gallon of regular gas. Meanwhile, Oklahoma had the lowest at around $3.27 a gallon.

Geopolitical conflicts have contributed to soaring gas prices before. The U.S. average climbed to its highest level of just over $5 a gallon in June 2022, nearly four months after the Ukraine war began and world leaders imposed sanctions against Russia, a leading oil producer.

Prices at the pump later fell from that record. Before Tuesday, per AAA data, the national average had stayed below the $4 mark since mid-August of 2022.

Other parts of the world that rely more heavily on fuel imports from the Middle East, notably Asia, have seen starker energy shocks amid the Iran war. America’s position as a net oil exporter gives it some more supply to fall back on — but that doesn’t mean it’s immune to price hikes. The U.S. still imports crude and refined products like gasoline. 

And overall, oil is a globally-traded commodity.

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

 

Joe Kent Urges Americans To Call White House and Congress To Object To Sending Troops Into Iran

(Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com) Joe Kent, the former director of the National Counterterrorism Center who resigned over his opposition to the US-Israeli war against Iran, is urging Americans to contact the White House and Congress to express opposition to the US sending ground troops into Iran.

In a post on X, Kent shared the phone numbers for the White House comment line (202-456-1111) and the congressional switchboard (202-224-3121). “Respectfully tell them that we do not support putting any boots on the ground in Iran,” he said in a video included in the post.

“This is how we the people can have our voices heard. It’s critical that we pray for peace, but it’s also critical that we work towards peace. Respectfully contact your elected officials and let them know we the people do not support this war,” he added.

Kent’s message comes as thousands of additional US troops have arrived in the Middle East as the Pentagon is preparing potential ground operations that could involve attempting to seize control of Iranian islands or areas of the coast near the Strait of Hormuz.

Kent, a former Green Beret and CIA paramilitary officer, said in his resignation letter to President Trump earlier this month that he could not “in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran.” He told the president that “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation” and that it was “clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”

This article originally appeared at Antiwar.com. 

4 Charged in Corruption Investigation Linked to NYC Homeless Shelter Operator

(Headline USA) Federal prosecutors probing public corruption in New York have charged the leaders of a homeless shelter nonprofit with stealing $1.3 million from the taxpayer-backed organization and steering contracts worth millions more to favored vendors in exchange for bribes and kickbacks, according to an indictment unsealed Tuesday.

The charges come as investigators also probe whether City Council Member Farah Louis and her sister Debbie Louis, an aide to New York Gov. Kathy Hochul, accepted bribes related to the appropriation of city funds to the nonprofit, according to a search warrant viewed by The Associated Press.

Four people were arrested in the probe Tuesday. The sisters were not among those taken into custody.

The indictment describes multiple layers of corruption within BHRAGS Home Care Corp., a nonprofit focused on home health care, which has in recent years expanded its mission to include homeless shelters. 

They manage multiple emergency shelters opened in response to an influx of asylum seekers under the city’s former mayor, Eric Adams.

Prosecutors said the nonprofit’s executive director, Roberto Samedy, 50, and its former board chairman, Jean Ronald Tirelus, 50, embezzled from the organization — at one point pocketing $800,000 earmarked for “economic growth and affordable housing” in distressed Brooklyn neighborhoods.

The pair also received more than $200,000 in kickbacks in exchange for steering contracts worth millions of dollars to businesses controlled by Edouardo St. Fort and Miguel Jorge, the indictment said.

Tirelus, Samedy and Jorge all pleaded not guilty through their attorneys in court on Tuesday.

St. Fort, a former New York City police sergeant, was arrested in Massachusetts on Tuesday and did not appear in the courtroom. Inquiries to his attorney were not returned.

The indictment did not outline any wrongdoing by others. All four of the men arrested Tuesday were mentioned in a search warrant, signed March 19, seeking communications between BHRAGS, the Louis sisters and Edu Hermelyn,

Edu Hermelyn is the husband of state Assembly member Rodneyse Bichotte Hermelyn, who chairs the Brooklyn Democratic Party.

Messages left for Farah Louis, Debbie Louis and Edu Hermelyn were not returned.

A spokesperson for BHRAGS issued a statement saying the nonprofit has served New Yorkers for more than 50 years “with integrity and the highest ethical standards, and we take the allegations against Mr. Samedy seriously.”

It said Samedy is on administrative leave, with his duties handed off to the company’s chief operating officer, and that the company is cooperating with law enforcement.

Tirelus’ lawyer, Todd Spodek, said he “categorically disputes the charges and looks forward to clearing his name at trial.”

Tirelus and Samedy were charged with wire fraud, embezzlement, and bribery-related offenses and face up to 20 years in prison if convicted. St. Fort and Jorge were charged with federal program bribery and related charges, and face up to 10 years each.

St. Fort, who retired as a New York City police sergeant in 2023, runs Fort NYC Security, records show. Since 2023, the city has agreed to pay more than $7 million to Fort NYC Security to provide security services at homeless shelters, often as a subcontractor for BHRAGS.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said the city would “definitely be looking into” existing contracts that the city has with BHRAGS.

The existence of a search warrant naming Farah and Debbie Louis doesn’t necessarily indicate that prosecutors plan to bring criminal charges against them, only that investigators persuaded a magistrate judge to allow them to dig deeper and seize evidence.

Nevertheless, the governor’s office said Debbie Louis has been placed on leave, and a spokesperson for the City Council said the legislative body “takes any potential misconduct extremely seriously.”

“New Yorkers deserve confidence in their government,” the spokesperson said. “It is essential that the federal investigation proceed fairly and expeditiously to bring this matter to a resolution.”

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

Trump Tells Other Countries Reliant on the Strait of Hormuz To Go and ‘Take It’

(Dave DeCamp, Antiwar.com) President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday that other countries that are reliant on energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz should get involved militarily and “take it” from Iran, as the Iranian military continues to control the strategic waterway.

“All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the US, we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT,” the president wrote on Truth Social.

“You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the USA. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil! President DJT,” he added.

Secretary of War Pete Hegseth backed up President Trump’s comments during a press briefing at the Pentagon, suggesting other countries should “stand up” to help open the strait.

“I think the president was clear this morning in his truth that there are countries around the world who ought to be prepared to step up on this critical waterway as well. It’s not just the United States Navy. Last time I checked, there was supposed to be a big, bad Royal Navy that could be prepared to do things like that as well,” Hegseth said.

“So he’s pointing out this is an international waterway that we use less than most. In fact, dramatically less than most. So, the world ought to pay attention and be prepared to stand up,” the US war chief added.

The comments from Trump and Hegseth came after The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump told his aides he’s willing to end the war, even if it means leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed, though there’s still no sign that real diplomacy between Washington and Tehran is underway.

In the meantime, US-Israeli strikes continue to pound Iran, and Iranian missile and drone attacks continue across the region. The US is also deploying more troops to the region amid reports that the Pentagon is preparing for potential ground operations, which Hegseth made clear is a possibility.

“Our adversary right now thinks there are 15 different ways we could come at them with boots on the ground. And guess what? There are. So if we needed to, we could execute those options on behalf of the president of the United States and this department,” Hegseth told reporters.

This article originally appeared at Antiwar.com.  

HSBC: Gold Is Behaving Like a Risk Asset But Bullish Case Remains

(Mike Maharrey, Money Metals News Service) After an initial safe-haven boost at the onset of the Iran war, gold corrected and has behaved more like a risk asset. However, HSBC analysts say the de-dollarization trend still makes the yellow metal a good long-term investment.

As I have noted, wars in the modern era haven’t had a major impact on the gold price beyond an early safe-haven bid. After a brief initial spike, other factors in the economy have tended to drive the gold price, particularly the trajectory of monetary policy.

This has proved true during the current conflict. Gold initially surged to $5,400 an ounce at the onset of hostilities but quickly corrected and then sold off.

As oil prices spiked, inflation worries threw a wet blanket on hopes for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. Some analysts have even predicted a new hiking cycle. This has created significant headwinds for gold as a non-yielding asset. While I don’t think this case against gold stands up to scrutiny, the narrative seems to be currently controlling the market.

HSBC analysts noted that interest rate worries and a strong dollar have created significant headwinds for gold since the war kicked off.

“A stronger U.S. dollar has certainly been a headwind, deterring non-US buyers, while a hawkish repricing of interest rates has increased the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset.”

But they pointed out that gold’s performance during the tightening cycle in 2022 and 2023 undercut the narrative that gold can’t chart gains in a higher-rate environment.

“Gold withstood a similar surge in the greenback and rates throughout 2022, weakening this traditional thesis.”

In an interview on CNBC, HSBC chief precious metals analyst James Steel pointed out that the relationship between real rates and gold appears to have broken down.

“The change happened in 2022. Before that, if you looked at the real rate on the 10-year – that’s the 10-year minus inflation – it had a beautiful inverse correlation with gold, going right back to the end of Bretton Woods, when the gold came off the dollar exchange. Gold is not as sensitive to real rates, particularly on the 10-year, as it used to be. And that’s also when we got a lot of retail buying in the market, elevated geopolitical risks, and also central bank buying.”

HSBC analysts said they believe that gold is effectively serving as a risk asset in the current market, with speculators and traders in control.

“Ownership has shifted towards retail and other leveraged buyers, many of whom are forced to liquidate holdings in periods of market stress.”

However, HSBC analysts remain bullish in the longer term.

“There remains a decent long-term investment case for gold, particularly amid ongoing global de-dollarization.”

In fact, the war may well accelerate this trend as more countries become wary of the weaponization of the dollar. The war will also drive more borrowing and spending, further eroding Uncle Sam’s abysmal fiscal situation. Many countries are already becoming wary of loaning a bankrupt U.S. government more money.

We’re already seeing evidence in this with India bypassing the dollar in some oil transactions.

Steel said he doesn’t think the U.S. dollar is in danger of losing its reserve status. However, that doesn’t preclude a diversification of reserves and a modest decline in dollar demand.

“We believe that the dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency for the foreseeable future, and by that we mean for a very long time to come. But that’s not to say, for example, that every central bank may need as many dollars as it has… One of the ways you can reduce your dollar exposure is to buy gold.”

Even a modest decline in dollar reserves spells trouble for an economy that depends on foreign dollar demand to support its money-printing habit. If the world needs fewer dollars, they will begin to return to the U.S., causing a dollar glut. This will increase inflationary pressure domestically as the value of the U.S. currency further depreciates. In the worst-case scenario, the dollar could collapse completely, leading to hyperinflation.

In the meantime, Steel said we should expect continued volatility in the gold market, especially if the Iran war drags on.

“Don’t forget, we’ve had a lot of new money come into the market, and we’ve had a parabolic rally in January. When a market goes up like this, it really invites volatility. I think that’s going to be the benchmark word for this year – volatility – in gold. Just because it’s a safe haven, and just because it’s a quality asset, doesn’t mean it’s not volatile.”


Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for Money Metals with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.