(Thérèse Boudreaux, The Center Square) President Donald Trump’s tax cuts, border, defense, and energy promises are one step closer to enactment after the U.S. House narrowly passed its $4.5 trillion budget resolution Tuesday night, officially kickstarting the budget reconciliation process.
Following hours of Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., convincing Republican holdouts to commit, a brief cancellation of the vote, and then an abrupt recalling of all House members, the resolution passed 217-215 and now heads to the Senate.
Republicans have a majority in the upper chamber with 53 members to the Democrats’ 45 and two independents caucusing with them.
The passage of the House budget resolution was far from certain.
Both the high price tag and the steep spending cuts worried some Republicans, with centrists opposed to possible slashes to Medicaid and fiscal hardliners revolting against the estimated tens of trillions of dollars the resolution could add to the federal deficit over the next 10 years.
Besides extending the 2017 Trump tax cuts for at least 10 years at the cost of $4.5 trillion, the resolution authorizes a $300 billion increase in defense and border security spending, to be split among the Armed Services, Homeland Security, and Judiciary committees.
To partially accommodate its price tag, the proposal also instructs the Ways and Means Committee to raise the debt ceiling by $4 trillion and instructs other committees to find at least $1.5 trillion in spending cuts over the next 10 years, likely from changes to Medicaid.
Just two Republican “no” votes could have tanked the resolution. Out of the four Republican holdouts who had either indicated or outright stated their intent to vote no, Reps. Victoria Spartz, R-Ind., Tim Burchett, R-Tenn., and Warren Davidson, R-Ohio, ultimately flipped after pressure from party leaders. Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., was the lone Republican who voted against the resolution.
The “very complicated negotiation,” in Johnson’s own words, marked yet another odds-defying moment where the Louisiana Republican pulled through on Trump’s agenda despite substantial resistance from members of his party.
“We have a lot of hard work ahead of us,” Johnson acknowledged after the vote. “We are going to deliver the America First agenda. We’re going to deliver all of it, not just parts of it, and this is the first step of that process.”
Democrats did not hold back on their criticism of the resolution, lambasting it as “cruel,” a “betrayal,” and a “handout to billionaires” in comments on the House floor preceding the vote.
Rep. Chris Deluzio, D-Pa., harped on Democrats’ claim that the House plan will overwhelmingly benefit the rich by extending Trump’s tax cuts and harm the poor by potentially cutting Medicaid. He dubbed the resolution “a fiscally reckless grift that will pillage our government and plunder peoples’ health care all to enrich huge corporations and the ultra-rich.”
If the Trump tax cuts expire, the average taxpayer will have a 22% tax hike as well as their guaranteed deduction slashed in half, according to data from the House Ways and Means Committee. The child tax credit would also reduce from $2,000 per child to $1,000 per child.
Republicans have said if there will be any changes to Medicaid – something the resolution does not explicitly say – it would be through modernizing the program, not widespread cuts.
“Once again, this resolution does not cut a single specific program or benefit,” Rep. Erin Houchin, R-Ind., told lawmakers. “The Democrats are speaking fear, not facts. Democrats have told these lies before and were proven wrong. The Democrats want to continue four more years of Bidenomics; we want to put us on a path to prosperity.”
Because the reconciliation process is not subject to the Senate filibuster, Republican senators can adopt the House’s budget resolution by a simple majority vote.
But the fate of the House’s plan remains uncertain because Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., already pushed forward a completely different budget resolution. Thune’s fully offset $342 billion Senate bill funds most of Trump’s legislative priorities but leaves the monumental tax cut extension and debt ceiling increase for a later date.
The chambers must adopt identical budget resolutions before they can move forward in the reconciliation process. Thune previously said the Senate version is merely a “backup plan” in case the House’s resolution didn’t advance.
House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, urged Republican senators to switch to the House’s plan.
“This budget resolution provides the fiscal framework for what will be one of the most consequential pieces of legislation in modern history and the principal legislative vehicle for President Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda,” Arrington said in a post-vote statement.
“I urge my Senate colleagues to immediately adopt our budget blueprint so Congress can get to work on the reconciliation process that will usher in the Golden Age of America.”
