A decisive Republican win in a Dallas-area special election offered flashbacks of 2017 for some political watchers—which could mean bad news for the Biden administration and power-hungry congressional Democrats.
“Dems should prepare for a SHELLACKING in 2022,” tweeted Fox News Tammy Bruce following the GOP victory in Texas’s 6th congressional district on Sunday.
Dems should prepare for a SHELLACKING in 2022… “Democrats aiming to flip Texas House seat fall short as 2 Republicans qualify for runoff” https://t.co/j5Sga30LPI
— Tammy Bruce (@HeyTammyBruce) May 2, 2021
After finishing third, behind two Republican candidates, Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez conceded the race to replace Rep. Ron Wright, who died in February.
Sanchez lost by 400 votes to state legislator Jake Ellzey, and both trailed by more than 4,200 votes to frontrunner Susan Wright, the widow of the late congressman.
Wright had been endorsed by former president Donald Trump.
“She will be strong on the Border, Crime, Pro-Life, our brave Military and Vets, and will ALWAYS protect your Second Amendment,” Trump wrote. “She will never let you down. VOTE TODAY!”
Wright led the race with 19.21% of the vote, which was divided among 23 candidates, including 11 Republicans and 10 Democrats. Ellzey received 13.75%.
The two GOP vote-leaders, Wright and Ellzey, now face a June 5 runoff since neither received an outright majority of the more than 78,000 voters.
On Monday, Trump, who is considering another run for the White House in 2024, credited himself for a last-minute surge in Wright’s campaign.
“Please explain to the Democrats and RINOs that the reason Texas-06 completely shut out Democrats in Saturday’s Jungle Primary is because of my Endorsement of Susan Wright, who surged last week after receiving it,” he wrote in a statement.
“The Democrats were shut out and now it will be a contest between two Republicans, a very big win,” he continued. “It would be nice, however, if the pundits and Fake News Media would state the real reason for this unprecedented (Democrats have never been shut out before) victory!”
NARROWING HOUSE MARGINS
Holding the TX-06 seat was of special concern given the narrow House margin, which could dwindle back down to five seats following the Texas runoff.
That margin would be even smaller except that Rep. Steve Stivers, R-Ohio, is resigning in mid-May to take a private-sector position leading his state’s Chamber of Commerce.
Several Democrat vacancies also remain due to congresspeople accepting positions in the Biden administration and the death of Rep. Alcee Hastings, D-Fla.
A Republican upset by New Mexico state Sen. Mark Moores in the June 1 race to replace Interior Secretary Deb Haaland could be the next big indicator of Democrats’ waning political fortunes in the lead-up to next year’s midterm election.
The Ohio races to replace both Stivers and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Marcia Fudge are scheduled for Nov. 2.
Two Louisiana special elections have already occurred to fill the seats left vacant by Rep.-elect Luke Letlow, a Republican who died before being sworn in, and ex-Rep. Cedric Richmond, who was named Biden’s director of the Office of Public Engagement.
VICTORY LAP
Whatever the implications may be for shifting dynamics in the House, Republicans will certainly argue that the Texas race was a symbolic victory.
It puts political wind at their backs, while also conveying voters’ growing dissatisfaction with President Joe Biden, who celebrated his first 100 days last week, noted Fox News.
If Biden Is So Popular, Why This?
Republicans grabbed the two runoff slots in the Texas 6 special election yesterday. Dems were shut out, their candidates won a total 36% in a Dallas area seat that Trump carried by only 3 points last November.https://t.co/HgcWkGZDOE
— John Fund (@johnfund) May 2, 2021
Despite clear signs of public disapproval with the Biden administration’s far-left agenda, the mainstream media continues to carry water for the White House, claiming—without evidence—that he enjoys widespread bipartisan support.
As expected, they downplayed the loss, noting that the odds were always against Texas Democrats but that they were continuing to make the reliably red powerhouse more purple.
“The clear enthusiasm in this election is one more sign that Texas is moving closer and closer to turning blue with every year that passes,” claimed Texas Democratic Party Chair Gilberto Hinojosa in a statement.
“The new Democratic South is rising, and we will continue to rally our movement to take back our state—including as we look toward the 2022 governor’s race,” he added.
But they may find themselves on the wrong side of history, if recent precedent offers any indication.
BEWARE THE BELLWETHERS
In 2017, media couldn’t talk enough about the so-called bellwether special elections that would disprove Trump’s popular mandate.
That included a runoff race in Georgia‘s 6th Congressional District, where dark-money Democrats flooded in support for far-left candidate Jon Ossoff to fill the seat previously occupied by Trump’s then-Health and Human Services secretary, Tom Price.
Despite Ossoff’s loss, they quickly moved the goalposts to explain that the closeness of the race was an ominous signal about the once-safe red district. (It would later flip blue in 2018, and Ossoff would go on to be elected a senator in January of this year.)
Democrats likewise poured money into an Alabama senate race to replace Trump’s attorney general, Jeff Sessions.
The election of Democrat Doug Jones was an extra slap in the face for Trump after Sessions’s recusal from the Russia-collusion investigation had soured their relationship early on.
For Democrats, the win was framed as a major momentum-builder leading into the 2018 midterm races, where many campaigned on the promise of impeaching the president.
Ultimately, they succeeded in winning back the House by flipping 41 seats, although the projected blue wave never materialized to the extent that Democrats claimed it would.
However, history indicates that the party in power—and controlling the White House in particular—almost always has a disadvantage in the midterms.
Recent polls put Biden’s approval rating around 54%, equivalent to that of Republican Gerald Ford in 1974, when he lost 43 seats.
The record-holder for at least the past half-century is former president Barack Obama, who lost 63 seats in 2010 after railroading through Obamacare by a party-line vote.
But as even Democrats have noted, the current Biden agenda makes Obama seem moderate by comparison.
