(Money Metals News Service) Money Metals podcast host Mike Maharrey recently interviewed Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of Merk Investments, to discuss the evolving dynamics of precious metals markets and broader economic trends.
Their discussion covered deregulation, global instability, fiscal policy, and strategic investment in gold and mining. Below is an in-depth summary of the interview’s key points.
(Interview Begins Around 4:56 Mark)
Deregulation and Fiscal Challenges in the U.S.
Axel Merk highlighted the potential economic implications of Donald Trump’s second term as U.S. president, particularly with a focus on deregulation. While Merk believes that easing regulations could improve growth prospects and streamline permitting processes for the mining sector, he cautioned that significant regulatory hurdles will persist. The deregulatory approach, however, does little to address deeper fiscal challenges.
Merk emphasized that fiscal sustainability is notably absent from the political agenda. With entitlement reform and deficit control off the table, the federal government is likely to continue high levels of spending, especially with looming extensions of prior tax cuts.
For gold investors, these fiscal headwinds reinforce the argument for holding gold as a safeguard against the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.
Geopolitical Instability and Gold’s Role
Merk expressed grave concerns about rising geopolitical instability worldwide. He pointed to the conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza as symptoms of a broader breakdown in the post-World War II stability that many nations have relied upon. He observed that such instability is making gold increasingly appealing as a hedge against uncertainty.
Populism, particularly in Europe, has added to the political turmoil. Merk highlighted the inefficiencies and bureaucratic inertia of the European Union, which have alienated voters and fueled populist movements. He likened the disruption caused by these shifts to the historical impact of the printing press, suggesting that empowered individuals and social movements are reshaping traditional political hierarchies. In this unpredictable environment, Merk believes gold remains a critical asset for preserving value.
Looking beyond the U.S., Merk examined trends in other regions that impact the precious metals market. In Europe, political stagnation and growing populism pose risks to economic stability. Elections in countries like Germany are bringing radical shifts, as traditional parties struggle to appeal to voters demanding change.
In China, the real estate crisis continues to loom large, with the government resorting to incremental stimulus measures to stabilize the economy. However, these efforts have done little to address deeper structural problems.
Meanwhile, regions like West Africa are experiencing heightened instability, reducing their appeal for mining investments. Conversely, Latin America has shown signs of improvement, offering new opportunities for gold mining projects.
Merk underscored that geopolitical risks, while always present, are unlikely to diminish and remain a key factor in the global gold market.
The Federal Reserve and Inflation
Merk did not hold back in his criticism of the Federal Reserve, describing it as a “debating club” lacking a clear strategy to manage inflation. While the Fed wields significant influence as the regulator of risk-free rates, its ad hoc approach and politically influenced decisions create uncertainty in the markets. Merk stressed that once inflation takes hold, it becomes non-linear, complicating the Fed’s ability to control it effectively.
The Fed’s inconsistent policies, according to Merk, are particularly concerning in the context of rising debt and fiscal mismanagement. He argued that sound monetary policy is almost impossible without fiscal discipline. While the bond market ultimately imposes discipline on governments, the Fed’s current approach exacerbates market volatility and erodes confidence. For investors, this underscores the need to prepare for economic disruptions.
Gold Prices and Market Resilience
Despite rising treasury yields, gold prices have shown remarkable resilience. Merk attributed this to several factors, including increased foreign central bank buying, investor concerns about the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar, and gold’s role as a hedge against fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties.
Gold’s lack of consistent correlation with other assets makes it particularly attractive in volatile markets. Merk noted that while long-term real interest rates typically influence gold prices, the metal has defied expectations, maintaining strength even under conditions that might have driven prices lower. This resilience, he argued, reflects growing demand from diverse investor groups, including those seeking to safeguard their portfolios against global instability.
Investment Strategy and Mining Insights
Turning to the mining sector, Merk noted that major producers have underinvested in recent years, resulting in strong balance sheets but limited leverage to rising gold prices. To address this, some large mining companies are taking on ambitious projects, though these often face delays and cost overruns.
On the other hand, Merk highlighted the potential of smaller, more focused mining projects, which have delivered significant value by completing projects on time and within budget. He emphasized the importance of diversification and maintaining a balanced portfolio, especially in a volatile sector like mining. While valuations in the mining industry remain subdued, Merk sees this as an opportunity, particularly for investors willing to take a long-term view.
Takeaways for Investors
Merk advised investors to take a proactive approach to managing their portfolios. He emphasized the importance of rebalancing, reducing debt, and maintaining an allocation that aligns with one’s risk tolerance. These steps, he argued, help investors stay calm and make rational decisions during periods of market volatility.
Precious metals, while often viewed as defensive investments, carry their own risks due to price volatility. Merk cautioned investors to be aware of these risks while also recognizing the critical role that gold and mining stocks can play in a diversified portfolio. In an increasingly unstable world, investing in oneself—through financial discipline and thoughtful planning—remains a cornerstone of long-term success.
Conclusion
Axel Merk’s insights offer a compelling perspective on the intersection of fiscal policy, global instability, and investment strategy. In a world fraught with uncertainty, gold continues to serve as a valuable hedge, and the mining sector offers opportunities for those willing to navigate its challenges.
To stay updated on Merk’s work, follow him on X (formerly Twitter) @AxelMerk, or visit MerkInvestments.com. As Merk aptly noted, “History shows that what actually drives the market may ultimately be something else.” In these unpredictable times, his guidance offers clarity and perspective for investors worldwide.
Key Questions & Answers
The following are the key questions and answers from the Money Metals podcast with host Mike Maharrey and Merk Investments’ President and CIO, Axel Merk:
How has the transition to Trump’s second term impacted the outlook for precious metals markets?
Axel Merk noted that the transition to Donald Trump’s second term has brought a deregulatory focus, which could potentially boost economic growth and benefit the mining sector through streamlined permitting processes. However, he emphasized that regulation will not disappear entirely. Merk expressed concerns that fiscal sustainability is absent from the agenda, with entitlement reform and deficit control remaining unaddressed. He argued that these fiscal challenges, coupled with continued government spending, reinforce the importance of gold as a hedge against the declining purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.
What global factors outside the U.S. may significantly impact the precious metals market?
Merk highlighted rising geopolitical instability as a major factor influencing the global precious metals market. He pointed to conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, alongside populist movements in Europe, as signs of a broader shift from post-World War II stability. In Europe, dissatisfaction with bureaucratic inefficiencies and stagnant politics is driving radical change. Meanwhile, in China, the ongoing real estate crisis and incremental stimulus measures reflect deeper structural problems. Merk also noted the varying levels of stability in mining regions, with West Africa becoming less stable and parts of Latin America improving. These global dynamics make gold an attractive asset for preserving value amid uncertainty.
Why has gold remained resilient despite rising treasury yields?
Gold’s resilience, despite rising treasury yields, surprised many market observers. Merk attributed this to several factors, including foreign central bank buying, investor concerns over the dollar’s purchasing power, and gold’s role as a hedge against geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties. He explained that gold’s lack of consistent correlation with other assets makes it a versatile investment. While gold prices are often influenced by long-term real interest rates, Merk observed that the metal has defied expectations, maintaining its strength in a volatile economic environment.
What is Axel Merk’s perspective on the Federal Reserve’s handling of inflation?
Merk criticized the Federal Reserve for lacking a cohesive strategy to manage inflation, describing it as a “debating club” prone to politically influenced decisions. He argued that once inflation takes hold, it becomes non-linear and difficult to control. The Fed’s inconsistent approach, combined with rising debt and fiscal mismanagement, has created uncertainty in the markets. Merk emphasized that sound monetary policy is nearly impossible without fiscal discipline, further highlighting the need for investors to prepare for potential economic disruptions.
Why have mining stocks lagged behind physical gold, and what is the outlook for 2025?
Merk explained that major gold producers have underinvested in recent years, resulting in strong balance sheets but limited leverage to rising gold prices. Larger mining companies are now taking on ambitious projects, but these are often plagued by delays and cost overruns. On the other hand, smaller mining projects, particularly those managed by teams with proven track records, have shown significant value creation. While mining valuations remain subdued, Merk sees opportunities for growth in 2025, especially for investors focusing on well-managed development projects.
What advice does Axel Merk have for investors in a volatile economic environment?
Merk advised investors to maintain a balanced portfolio that aligns with their risk tolerance. He emphasized the importance of rebalancing during strong market periods, reducing debt, and focusing on financial discipline. While precious metals offer valuable protection against uncertainty, Merk cautioned that they are also volatile and require careful consideration. In a less stable world, investing in oneself—by ensuring financial health and preparedness—remains a critical strategy for long-term success.
