(José Niño, Headline USA) An unidentified gambler has pocketed approximately $410,000 in profits after correctly wagering that Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro would lose power, according to Reuters.
The speculator’s Polymarket account accumulated positions in contracts linked to Maduro’s removal under terms suggesting unlikely odds ahead of the weekend military operation. These bets, valued at roughly $34,000 before Maduro’s detention, skyrocketed following reports that U.S. forces had captured the Venezuelan leader, platform data reveals.
Following Monday’s developments, major stock indices climbed and oil prices rose significantly, with energy sector shares posting substantial advances. Venezuela’s government bonds—already in default—surged on expectations of a comprehensive debt restructuring. Securities issued by both the Venezuelan government and state petroleum company PDVSA jumped as much as 10 cents per dollar, representing gains approaching 30%.
The suspicious timing of these trades will likely draw attention from legislators who have advocated for enhanced insider trading regulations, including bipartisan proposals to prohibit stock trading by members of Congress. Following Monday’s revelations, Democratic Representative Ritchie Torres announced plans to introduce legislation this week preventing elected officials, congressional members, and federal workers from participating on prediction platforms where they might exploit privileged information.
The anonymous profile was established last month, with the investor purchasing $96 worth of contracts on December 27 that would generate returns if the United States invaded Venezuela by January 31. Additional similar positions followed in subsequent days.
Platforms such as Polymarket provide tradable binary contracts enabling users to speculate on diverse real-world outcomes spanning sports, entertainment, political developments, and economic events. When contracts purchased for pennies ultimately pay out at one dollar, traders possessing nonpublic information can generate enormous returns within extremely short timeframes.
Last September, Polymarket obtained regulatory clearance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to resume American operations following its $112 million purchase of QCEX, a CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange. The CFTC has not yet responded to inquiries regarding any investigation into Maduro-related transactions.
Previous concerns about potential insider trading have dogged Polymarket. Though Americans currently lack official access to the primary betting platform, numerous traders circumvent restrictions using VPN technology.
Polymarket declined to comment on the matter.
José Niño is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino
