(Headline USA) After the latest Census data and the effects of coming redistricting, Democrats are in for a difficult 2022 election cycle, political analysts say.
The University of Virginia Center of Politics released a report Thursday analyzing the electoral map in light of redistricting, and it doesn’t look good for Democrats.
Only two Republican members are considered to be in toss up races: Reps. Mike Garcia, R-Calif, and Young Kim, R-Calif.
The report shows far more Democratic seats up for grabs, while almost all of the Republican House seats are safe.
The report goes on to say that redistricting alone could give Republicans the majority in the House, not even taking into account the backlash from President Joe Biden’s controversial policies.
“What stands out here is the tiny number of Republicans in the Toss-up column, just two, versus the large number of Democrats there (19),” the report reads. “Overall, these ratings show 211 districts at least leaning to the Republicans, 203 at least leaning to the Democrats, and 21 Toss-ups (19 held by Democrats, two held by Republicans). Splitting the Toss-ups roughly down the middle — let’s say 11-10 Republican — would result in a 222-213 Republican majority, good for a nine-seat Republican net gain and a narrow majority the same size as the one Democrats elected in November.”
This latest data will likely worry Democrats, who fear a conservative backlash in response to Biden’s progressive agenda.
A similar surge happened in 2010 in response to former president Barack Obama, where Republicans took a decisive majority and created the Tea Party.
The party in the White House loses an average of 27 seats during the midterms, according to the report.
“In other words, Republicans already appear set up to significantly threaten the Democratic House majority, and the net impact of reapportionment and redistricting may make their task easier,” the report reads. “Republicans are not guaranteed to win the House next year, but the majority is clearly there for the taking.”