Election for Nunes’s Seat an Early Bellwether for GOP in California

'Anything is possible at this point...'

(Headline USA) Voters in California’s sprawling farm belt will fill a congressional seat Tuesday left vacant after Republican Rep. Devin Nunes resigned in the middle of his term to lead former President Donald Trump’s fledgling media company.

The special election in the Republican-leaning 22nd District has been largely ignored as national Democrats and Republicans fixate on midterm elections that will determine control of Congress in 2023.

The seat in the state’s Central Valley—sometimes called the nation’s salad bowl because of its agricultural production—is expected to stay in Republican hands.

Nunes’s unexpected departure in January created an unusual situation for his former constituents: the winner of the election will serve only months in Congress, and the district will vanish next year because of redrawn boundaries.

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Nonetheless, it may lend an incumbency advantage to an aspiring politician or political neophyte who may face a tougher battle in the upcoming general election, in which gerrymandering Democrats deliberately made the district and several other conservative seats more competitive.

Regardless, that could backfire in a year in which, even for far-left California, a red wave has been building amid backlash over the failed policies of the Biden administration.

Recent pushes to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom, corrupt district attorneys George Gascon and Chesa Boudin, and overly woke members of the San Francisco school board all serve as testaments to the potential Republicans have long dreamt of to retake the Golden State.

Still, the rigged election system may prove an insurmountable challenge as it has in recent elections, where union-backed activists have been accused of ballot-stuffing and other vote fraud by abusing a patchwork of deliberately relaxed and chaotic laws.

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Mail-in voting in the 22nd district started last month, and early returns point to a sparse turnout.

With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic dominating headlines, campaigns say some of the low-info voters they contact are surprised to find out an election is taking place, or are not aware that Nunes, a prominent Trump loyalist while in Congress, had resigned.

If no candidate gets a majority, a runoff between the top two finishers will coincide with the statewide primary election June 7. That would sow even more confusing as voters would be casting ballots for the special election and for the candidate in the newly redrawn district.

There are six candidates on the ballot – four Republicans and two Democrats. With a potential runoff, there’s a chance two Republicans could face off for the seat in June.

“Anything is possible at this point,” said Connie Conway, a former county supervisor, Republican leader in the state Assembly and Trump administration appointee, who is the best known candidate among the contenders.

The 48-year-old Nunes was comfortably reelected in November 2020 before exiting with a year left in his term to join the Trump Media & Technology Group. The company hopes its social media platform will rival competitors like Twitter and Facebook, which blocked the former president’s accounts shortly before the end of his presidency.

Other candidates include Republicans Elizabeth Heng, a tech executive who lost a run for Congress in a neighboring district in 2018 and briefly ran for U.S. Senate; Michael Maher, a Navy veteran and former FBI special agent; and former Navy combat pilot Matt Stoll, a small business owner.

Democrats on the ballot are Eric Garcia, a Marine and Iraq War veteran, and Lourin Hubbard, a manager for the state Department of Water Resources.

Different agendas are in play. Conway, if elected, plans to serve only the remainder of Nunes’ term. However, Garcia, Maher and Stoll also are running in the June statewide primary in a newly drawn district—the 21st—that includes a slab of Nunes’ territory. In that race, they will be taking on Democratic Rep. Jim Costa, and it’s obvious they hope a win on Nunes’s old turf will be a springboard to winning the district.

A runoff would be politically tricky for Garcia, Maher or Stoll. In that case, a candidate’s name would end up appearing twice on the June ballot—once in a runoff for the vacant Nunes seat and a second time in a new House district for the term that starts in 2023. Voters easily could be confused seeing the same name twice.

With little at stake in the contest to replace Nunes, money has been in short supply and, as a result, advertising has been sporadic.

Federal fundraising records show Garcia, for example, raised over $200,000 but had only $1,700 in the bank in mid-March. Heng raised $215,000 and had about $60,000 on hand at that time. But she also stacked up $95,000 in unpaid bills, leaving her campaign effectively in debt.

The outcome also will not tilt the balance of power on Capitol Hill, where Democrats hold a slim majority.

The little-watched contest takes place in a challenging political environment for congressional Democrats. Polls show many Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country, and President Joe Biden’s approval ratings have been sagging.

While the contest for the vacant Nunes seat has been an afterthought nationally, California is at the center of the fight for the House. There are about a half-dozen highly competitive districts on the June ballot. Such contests are a rarity in the state, where Democrats hold every statewide office, dominate in the Legislature and have a 42-10 advantage in the congressional delegation.

Nationally, 30 House Democrats and 15 Republicans are not seeking reelection this year. In addition there are 5 House vacancies because of resignations or deaths.

Adapted from reporting by the Associated Press

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