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New Poll: DeSantis, Rubio, Moody Hold Large Leads ahead of Nov. 8 Election

'The surprise in these numbers is that a statewide race in Florida is closer to a blowout than a recount... '

() Incumbent Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, Attorney General Ashley Moody and U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio hold significant leads over their opponents ahead Nov. 8 election, according to a new poll.

The poll was conducted by the University of North Florida Public Opinion Research Lab from Oct. 17-24 among 622 registered voters.

DeSantis, Moody and Rubio – all Republicans – each hold double digit leads over their Democratic challengers.

DeSantis now has a 14-point lead over his Republican-turned-Democrat challenger, Charlie Crist. Moody also holds a 14-point lead and Rubio an 11-point lead.

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According to the poll, 55% said they would vote for DeSantis compared to 41% for Crist. Slightly less, 54% said they’d vote for Rubio compared to 43% for his challenger, Val Demings. And 50% said they’d support Moody compared to 36% who said they support her Democratic challenger, Aramis Ayala.

Of the findings, Dr. Michael Binder, PORL faculty director and UNF professor of political science, said, “Given DeSantis’s historic fundraising and popularity among Republicans, his lead in this race is not surprising. The surprise in these numbers is that a statewide race in Florida is closer to a blowout than a recount.”

Despite the fact that Demings “has raised a lot of money and has been on the attack for months,” Binder notes that Rubio is still ahead by double digits.

“Florida has become a red state, it will likely take an exceptionally weak Republican candidate for Democrats to win statewide – and Rubio is not a weak candidate,” he said.

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Respondents also were asked about their views on voter fraud.

When asked how often they believed voter fraud occurs to change the outcome of an election, 34% said voter fraud impacts less than 1% of races compared to 54% who said it happens more frequently. A minority, 12%, said substantial voter fraud occurs in more than half of all races.

When asked who won the 2020 presidential election, 50% said Joe Biden definitely won and 10% said he probably won; 19% said Trump definitely won and 15% said he probably won.

“Most of the research in this area suggests impactful voter fraud is rare – well under 1% of elections,” Binder stated, “but most people seem to think it’s much more prevalent.

“This general distrust in elections is pretty clear when you look at perceptions of the 2020 election, with only half of respondents convinced Biden really won.”

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