(José Niño, Headline USA) Immigration accounts for recent population growth in the U.S. as its native population ages, according to a Thursday article in the Washington Post. While children still outnumber older adults nationwide, the share of older adults is rapidly increasing, according to the Post, whose reporting was underpinned by the new U.S. Census Bureau data.
From 2023 to 2024, the number of Americans aged 65 and older grew by 3.1 percent, while the population under 18 declined by 0.2 percent. This trend is especially pronounced in sparsely populated areas, with nearly half of U.S. counties now home to more older adults than children.
“The gap between the two groups ‘is narrowing,’ in part because of a decline in births this decade,” explained Lauren Bowers, chief of the Census Bureau’s population estimates branch.
Amidst this demographic transformation, a historic surge in immigration—particularly among Hispanic and Asian populations—has helped offset some of the decline in the younger population. The Hispanic population in the United States increased by about 9.7 percent from April 2020 to July 2024, while the Asian population grew by approximately 13 percent.
The Congressional Budget Office released its annual U.S. demographics report on Monday, revealing dismal projections that the American deathrate will exceed the birthrate by 2033, and that immigration will account for any population growth thereafter. pic.twitter.com/ES4PrYLXJF
— Ken Silva (@JD_Cashless) January 14, 2025
“This past year, the population gain was bigger than it’s ever been before,” noted Bill Frey, a senior demographer at the Brookings Institution. “Overall, it’s because of immigration.” Frey emphasized that the sharp drop in the number of White children has been partially balanced by the rising number of non-White youth.
White Americans made up 57.5 percent of the total population in 2024, but only 47.5 percent of those under 18. In contrast, Hispanics accounted for 20 percent of the total population and 26.9 percent of children. Still, the median age is rising across all racial groups.
“There is a gradual change in the racial and ethnic profile of America’s children,” said Steven Martin, a senior research associate at the Urban Institute. “But a more useful way of thinking about it is the age structure of the population is changing for everybody, and it’s changing in a way that the retired population is increasing rapidly for everybody.”
The debate over how to address the nation’s aging population and declining birth rates continues, with some policymakers proposing incentives to boost fertility. However, Frey argued, “I’d like to make the case that immigration could help us have a bigger younger population or a smaller decline in the younger population. It’s not all about having women have more fertility, but it also can mean we should have more immigration.”
The demographic shift is evident across the country: the number of metro areas with more older adults than children jumped from 58 in 2020 to 112 in 2024, and eleven states now have more older adults than children, up from just three in 2020. Regional differences persist, with the West and South maintaining the lowest median ages, and the Asian and Hispanic populations experiencing the fastest growth.
This recent findings from the Census Bureau align with a previous report from the Congressional Budget Office that found that starting in 2033, all U.S. population growth will be driven entirely by immigration, as the national deathrate surpasses the birthrate due to persistently low fertility levels.
As Headline USA reported in January, native-born Americans having fewer children, immigration is projected to sustain the country’s demographic and economic trajectory for decades to come.
José Niño is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino
