Easy Money, Hard Metals, and the Fed’s Next Move

(Money Metals News Service) On a recent episode of Money Metals’ Midweek Memo podcast, host Mike Maharrey opens with a pointed analogy: calling a 3% CPI “good” because it beat a grim forecast is like celebrating “no cancer” while ignoring high cholesterol, hypertension, and pre-diabetes. The patient isn’t healthy; the diagnosis is merely less dire. That’s how markets keep greeting inflation prints.

The episode was recorded with volatility front and center. Despite a bruising two-week selloff, Maharrey remains bullish on gold and silver because the underlying drivers haven’t changed. The message is to stay focused on fundamentals rather than day-to-day price noise.

Market Action

Gold spent most of yesterday below $4,000 per ounce before bouncing roughly $75 this morning to reclaim that level. Some technicians are eyeing $4,000 as support, with others floating $3,750 as a potential line in the sand.

Silver followed suit, sliding firmly under $50 and then clawing back. During show prep, it traded around $48.60. The question “Are the bulls dead?” meets a simple answer: not if the same forces that drove record highs are still in place.

Perspective on the Trend

Even after the drop, gold is up more than 89% since January 1, 2024. The metal sprinted from $3,500 to $4,000 in just 36 days, a $500 step that historically took 18 to 24 months. Blow-off speed invites pullbacks, and corrections are normal in a bull market.

Maharrey notes that after gold first cleared $3,000 in April, it corrected and then moved sideways for four months. A period hovering near $4,000—perhaps even into early 2026—wouldn’t be shocking. The strategy is to decide whether you’re trading a headline or investing for five to ten years.

Why the Selloff Happened

Two forces stand out. First, profit-taking after a parabolic run drew in weak hands, and once the price turned, panic selling compounded the slide. Second, a bout of “risk-on” optimism tied to chatter about a U.S.–China trade deal sapped safe-haven demand.

Fawad Razaqzada at Forex.com observed that improving risk sentiment helped push the S&P 500 to fresh record highs, leaving gold on the back foot. He also cautioned that core tensions—national security and tech competition—won’t be solved in a single deal. The regime-uncertainty backdrop persists even if headlines look calm.

Five Pillars Still Supporting Gold

Maharrey lists five enduring drivers:

1. Falling real interest rates as the Fed shifts toward easing.
2. Persistent inflation that refuses to fade.
3. Ongoing trade and geopolitical uncertainty (regime uncertainty).
4. U.S. fiscal irresponsibility and dedollarization pressures.
5. Systemic financial risks from years of ultra-easy money and malinvestment.

Real interest rates are falling as the Fed heads into an easing cycle, shrinking the opportunity cost of holding metal. Inflation remains persistent, even when the monthly print looks “better than forecast.”

Geopolitics and trade remain unsettled, with policy unpredictability adding a steady risk premium. U.S. fiscal irresponsibility is worsening—debt eclipsed $38 trillion after jumping from $37 trillion in roughly two months—bolstering dedollarization currents. Systemic financial risks from years of ultra-easy money linger beneath the surface.

The Inflation Checkup

Headline CPI rose 3% year over year in September, up from 2.9% in August and 2.7% in July, and well above the 2.4% low notched in March. The “beat” was merely against a 3.1% forecast. On the month, prices rose 0.3%; annualized, that’s about 3.6%, and the last three months also annualize near 3.6%.

Core CPI increased 3% year over year, down a tick from 3.1% in August. Month over month, core rose 0.2% after 0.3% in July. Over the last four months, core advances of 0.2, 0.3, 0.3, and 0.2 annualize to 3%. Food at home rose 0.3% on the month, the overall food index rose 0.2%, and services climbed another 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year.

Targets, Formulas, and Reality

Maharrey argues that 3% is not 2%, and the range hasn’t truly cooled since mid-2022. He adds that 1990s CPI formula changes understate real-world price pressure compared to 1970s methodology; by that older yardstick, today’s 3% might look closer to 6%. The official figures still matter because policy is set by them, but households feel a cost-of-living reality that data revisions can’t soften.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics still released September CPI despite an ongoing government shutdown approaching a month, prioritizing the data because it affects Social Security adjustments. The headline characterization as “good” stems from beating the forecast, not from hitting the target.

The Fed’s Tightrope

The Fed’s October meeting began yesterday and wrapped up yesterday, October 29th. Markets largely expect a 0.25% rate cut and possibly a timetable to end quantitative tightening, after Chair Jerome Powell hinted at just such a shift weeks ago.

A CNBC Fed survey found 92% of respondents expected a cut at this meeting, but only 66% thought it should happen; 38% completely opposed the next cut. Richard Bernstein flagged that financial conditions are near historically easy, GDP is tracking 3.5% to 4%, asset prices are ripping, and inflation remains above target—hardly a rate-cut backdrop in saner times.

Liquidity and Labor

Chicago Fed financial conditions never became tight by historical standards, even at the peak of hikes. Liquidity shows up in the money supply: by August, M2 stood at $22.2 trillion, more than $600 billion above the mid-2023 trough and above the pandemic-era peak. The prior contraction that briefly “wrung out” inflation has reversed.

The labor side looks softer. The BLS showed just 22,000 jobs created in August and revised away nearly 1 million jobs. With September data delayed by the shutdown, private payrolls suggest sluggish hiring. Weak growth alongside sticky inflation has a name that keeps resurfacing: stagflation.

Data Gaps and Policy Risk

Some on Wall Street caution that cutting rates into an information fog is risky. One economist likened the Fed’s path to flying in a blizzard blindfolded, with mountains nearby. Maharrey’s broader point is that central planning can’t master an economy’s complexity; it inevitably runs aground on unintended consequences.

The Fed faces a binary: fight inflation or prop up a debt-burdened, bubble-prone economy. It can’t hike and cut at the same time. When forced to choose, recent history suggests policymakers choose inflation—the “poison they know”—to keep the bubbles from bursting.

What It Means for Stackers

If you believe the long-term case is intact, swift drawdowns become opportunities. Sub-$4,000 gold and mid-$40s silver are levels Maharrey views as add points within a still-supported bull market. Volatility is a feature, not a bug, when real rates fall and deficits swell.

One timely example: 90% silver coins—pre-1965 dimes and quarters—are available at Money Metals for five cents below spot, a rare negative premium. A 1964 quarter alone carries well over $8 in melt value at current prices, underscoring the appeal of highly liquid, low-cost silver.

Takeaway

No single headline will end this cycle’s push-and-pull. Inflation sits at 3% year over year, core hovers near 3%, services run at 3.5%, and three-month annualized CPI is about 3.6%. Debt has raced past $38 trillion. M2 has rebounded to $22.2 trillion. The Fed is poised to ease again as growth cools and price pressures linger.

Through it all, the thesis doesn’t change: policy preference for easy money erodes purchasing power over time. The antidote is to own real money and treat selloffs as chances to improve your position, rather than as reasons to abandon the field.

How to Act

Maharrey closes with the practicals. If you have questions about where metals fit in your portfolio or which products match your budget, talk to a Money Metals specialist at 1-800-800-1865.

Prefer not to call?

You can chat or order directly at moneymetals.com, and you can store holdings in the company’s state-of-the-art Idaho vault.

The broader counsel is steady: ignore the noisy diagnosis and treat the underlying condition. In a system that defaults to devaluation, the long game still favors gold and silver.