(Ezekiel Loseke, Headline USA) The Biden administration has begun the process of shuttering Predictit, “the Wall Street of Politics,” citing a violation of an unspecified rule. The website is now expected to close by February of 2023.
Predictit allows users to gamble on political contests and thus provides an alternative to the media-funded and controlled public polling found at RealClearPolitics.
A paper published by two university professors shows that political gambling has been going on for centuries. This market is thus much older than traditional political polling, according to Forbes.
Not only is the practice old, but it is also accurate. Forbes quoted one of the aforementioned professors, “of the 15 presidential elections between 1884 and 1940, betting markets only got it wrong once.”
This period, of course, includes a presidential winner in 1860, Abraham Lincoln, who won with less than 40% of the vote.
Dr. Emile Servan-Schriber, who is unaffiliated with the professors’ paper, said “There are 25 or more years of data that show prediction markets do a better job predicting outcomes than polls,” reported Politico.
Predictit operates on a historical model deeply rooted in American history that is understood to be very accurate. Despite its accuracy and traditional tie to American politics, political gambling is being shut down by the Federal government.
Politico reported that the Biden administration’s Wall Street regulator, citing a violation of rules, is shutting down the service. The unnamed “regulator did not disclose how PredictIt didn’t follow the rules.”
A spokesperson for Aristotle, the company that operates Predictit, said, “We have done everything that we believe they’ve asked us to do.” Though unsure of their violations, the spokesperson informed Politico that the company would “do everything possible to work with the CFTC to provide political event markets.”
