(Mike Maharrey, Money Metals News Service) Despite some analysts claiming it’s a relic of the past, a recent study found the gold-silver ratio remains a relevant technical indicator and is still useful for forecasting the silver market’s trajectory.
The study was featured in the latest edition of the Silver Institute’s Silver News report, along with reports covering recent advances in silver technology and the silver market.
The gold-silver ratio tells you how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold given the current spot prices of both metals. In other words, it tells you the price of gold in ounces of silver.
According to the study, the gold-silver ratio tends to revert to a mean of around 60-1.
In other words, when the gold-silver ratio rises well above its historical average, it signals that silver is underpriced relative to gold and there is a strong possibility that silver will go on a bull run to close that gap. Conversely, when the ratio drops significantly below 60-1, it will revert to the mean with a silver selloff or gold price surge.
The gold-silver ratio currently sits at around 67-1.
According to the Silver Institute, “The tendency for the gold-silver ratio cyclically to rise above and fall below its long-run equilibrium has not changed. Therefore, even if in future the outcomes will be skewed higher by the structural change supported by heavy official sector gold demand, dips well below equilibrium will also occur.”
Based on the data, when the gold-silver ratio rises roughly 20 percent above its mean, it will eventually move back, often very quickly overshooting the average in the process.
For instance, the gold-silver ratio fell to 30-1 in 2011 after rising to over 80-1 during the money creation of the Great Recession in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis.
Then in 2020, the gold-silver ratio set a record of 123-1 as COVID hysteria gripped the world and then plunged to around 60-1 as central banks around the world cranked up the money-creation machine to cope with governments shutting down economies.
According to the Silver Institute, the ratio of above-ground gold to silver bullion stocks acts in tandem with the ratio of gold-silver investment demand.
“The report noted that recently the higher gold price has been powered by official-sector net sales or purchases that have pushed the gold-silver ratio above the long-run 60-1 ratio. Nonetheless, the ratio is still expected to revert to the mean of about 60 to 1.”
The Silver Institute also reported some interesting technological developments in the world of silver.
- Silver has replaced silver in a process used to separate ethylene from propane. The old process carried the risk of an explosion. Researchers at Hanyang University in South Korea found that they can replace silver ions with metallic silver nanoparticles. This form of silver is more stable and less likely to react with chemicals such as acetylene, lowering the risk of explosion.
- Doctors have discovered that nanosilver can help to measure the correct medication dosages for individual patients. Nanosilver is often used in biological sensors because it can naturally boost the weak reflected light-wave signals coming from drug molecules. These signals have unique signatures that tell laser-powered readers how much and what kind of drug is present. Along with determining a drug’s best dosages and possible side effects, this approach has additional benefits. It replaces slow lab work because this light-based method is not only fast but can be done at a patient’s bedside.
- Applying Silver Diamine Fluoride (SDF) to children’s teeth has been shown to prevent cavities; however, it can leave dark stains. New research suggests that ‘nanosilver fluoride’ (NSF) might be just as effective without staining. According to a report in the journal BMC Oral Health, “Incorporating silver nanoparticles, NSF, retains the advantageous preventive; this method often leaves dark stains on youngsters’ teeth.“
- Can you smell silver? No. Pure silver and sterling have no odor. However, if you sniff a silver object, the smell indicates whether it is pure. “If you smell metal, like copper, which has a distinct odor, then the item in question is not pure silver. Zinc, brass, and steel have their own particular smells. Even if an item has a thin layer of silver coating, the underlying metal will usually still give off a metallic scent, suggesting that it is not pure silver.”
- Engineers from the College of Design and Engineering at the National University of Singapore have developed technology that could lead to more flexible and durable wearable sensors. The soft, stretchable substrate repairs itself, firmly grips metal conductors, and can be remolded or broken down after use. In tests, silver films for electrodes that pick up heart and muscle signals adhered three times more strongly to their substrate than other substances used to conduct electricity.
- The sun may contain 55 percent more silver than astronomers previously believed. Of course, scientists cannot collect samples from the sun to measure the amount of silver it contains, but they can estimate the sun’s composition by studying the light waves it emits. Every element has a unique wavelength, but the researchers came up short on silver when it came to reconciling the higher amount they saw in stuff that fell from space. According to Swedish researchers using a supercomputer, the sun’s rays – unbeknownst to astronomers – distorted the specific light waves that told them how much silver was present.
Mike Maharrey is a journalist and market analyst for Money Metals with over a decade of experience in precious metals. He holds a BS in accounting from the University of Kentucky and a BA in journalism from the University of South Florida.
