(Jesse Colombo, Money Metals News Service) Silver futures have broken out, delivering a strong bullish signal—but I’m still looking for additional confirmation to strengthen the case.
I’ve been consistently bullish on silver and have been pointing out the key signals to watch for a breakout from its prolonged consolidation of the past year. I’ve repeatedly said the main trigger would be a decisive, high-volume move above two critical resistance zones: $32 to $33 and then $34 to $35.
While many grew weary of waiting and doubted it would happen, it finally did yesterday—which is incredibly exciting. That’s why I’m publishing this quick technical update to show you where silver stands now and what I’m looking for next to confirm that the bull market is fully underway.
The primary form of silver I monitor is COMEX silver futures, as they tend to respect $1 increments as key support and resistance levels and, unlike the spot price, also display trading volume—an essential indicator of conviction and institutional money flows.
Remarkably, silver finally broke through the critical $35 threshold yesterday on strong volume, delivering a clear and decisive bullish signal. This signal remains valid as long as silver holds above that level. I believe this breakout sets the stage for a rapid move to $40, $50, $60, and beyond, as outlined in my detailed report linked in the first paragraph of this update.
One of the immediate catalysts behind yesterday’s breakout is China’s rare earth metals export curbs. However, the reality is that this breakout was inevitable—and it is primarily technical in nature. Silver has been like a coiled spring, simply waiting for a spark to unleash its momentum, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing now.
In addition, precious metals have been gaining support from a combination of recent developments: Moody’s downgrade of U.S. debt, continued weakness in the U.S. dollar, escalating tariff tensions between the U.S. and China, the Trump administration’s controversial new budget, and rising political dysfunction—fueled further by Elon Musk’s public falling-out with President Trump.
As I’ve noted before, silver’s frustrating consolidation over the past year has reminded me of gold’s prolonged range from 2020 to 2024—a period I said would eventually give way to a major bull market once gold broke above its $2,000 to $2,100 resistance zone, which it ultimately did.
I believe silver is now following a similar path, and yesterday’s breakout has a very strong chance of marking the beginning of a powerful new bull market.
I’ve also developed a proprietary tool called the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI), designed to help validate silver’s price action and filter out potential false breakouts.
The SSPI is calculated as the average of gold and copper prices, with copper scaled by a factor of 540 to prevent gold from dominating the index. Interestingly, even though silver isn’t part of the calculation, the SSPI closely tracks its movements.
I’ve been highlighting how the SSPI has been trading within a consolidation range between 2,800 and 3,000. A breakout above the 3,000 level would serve as a strong bullish confirmation for silver.
Yesterday, the SSPI initially rallied—driven by a sharp upward move in copper—but as copper gave back much of its gains, the SSPI failed to close above the key 3,000 level. Despite that, momentum remains strong, and I believe there’s a high probability the SSPI will make another breakout attempt soon. This, along with a decisive breakout in euro-priced silver, is one of the final confirmations I’m watching for.
The copper futures chart below shows how prices tested—but failed to break above—the key $5.00 to $5.20 resistance zone, which held back both the SSPI and silver from achieving even further gains yesterday. For more on my outlook for copper and why I’m bullish on it alongside silver, read my recent report.
In addition to silver itself, I’m also highly bullish on silver mining stocks and ETFs, which I expect to deliver even larger gains in the coming bull market due to their leverage to the price of silver. Large silver miners, as tracked by the SIL ETF, have been performing strongly after breaking out of a long-term triangle pattern that dates all the way back to 2011.
SIL is now approaching a critical resistance zone between $48 and $52—a level that has repeatedly capped rallies since 2016. I believe a decisive breakout above this zone, especially in tandem with a confirmed silver bull market, will trigger an explosive move higher in silver mining stocks. I’m watching closely and very excited about the potential upside.
Silver junior mining stocks, as tracked by the SILJ ETF, are even more volatile than their larger-cap counterparts—and offer even greater profit potential during bull markets.
Currently, SILJ remains within a long-term triangle pattern that dates back to 2013. I believe that once it breaks out of this formation, both SILJ and the broader junior silver mining space are poised to surge dramatically—offering significant upside for those positioned ahead of the move.
While not an absolute necessity, one final confirmation of the silver bull market would be a decisive breakdown in the U.S. dollar, which historically trades inversely to commodities—including precious metals.
As I’ve explained recently, the key level to watch on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is 100. The index is now trading below that threshold, giving it a clear bearish bias. The next critical level is 98; if that support breaks, I believe the index will quickly move toward the next major support at 90. Such a move would act as rocket fuel for the bull market in gold, silver, and mining stocks.
To summarize, yesterday’s nascent breakout in silver is both encouraging and exciting. However, I’m looking for additional confirmation before calling it a full-scale breakout. Specifically, I want to see silver break out in euros, the Synthetic Silver Price Index (SSPI) move decisively higher, and the U.S. Dollar Index break down further.
Once those pieces fall into place, I truly believe the major silver bull market I’ve been calling for—and that many of us have been waiting on—will finally be underway. As always, I’ll continue to keep you updated.
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Jesse Colombo is a financial analyst and investor writing on macro-economics and precious metals markets. Recognized by The Times of London, he has built a reputation for warning about economic bubbles and future financial crises. An advocate for free markets and sound money, Colombo was also named one of LinkedIn’s Top Voices in Economy & Finance. His Substack can be accessed here.
