(José Niño, Headline USA) Shoppers bracing for elevated beef costs face an increasingly dire situation as multiple crises converge on the North American cattle industry, Fortune reported.
A screwworm infestation that ravaged Mexican livestock has now entered American territory, compounding damage from prolonged drought that pushed the U.S. cattle population to figures unseen since the 1950s, according to a Los Angeles Times investigation.
The price of ground beef has climbed over 20 percent compared to January 2025 levels. Consumers who endured years of punishing inflation now face further strain on household budgets.
Uncertainty surrounding international commerce compounds the problem. As the New York Times reported,President Donald Trump indicated last week that his administration might decline to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement or potentially exit altogether. The president secured that very deal during his initial White House tenure as a replacement for the North American Free Trade Agreement, which had structured continental commerce since 1994.
The USMCA became operational in 2020 and features a 16-year sunset provision mandating tripartite review every six years. The three governments face a July 1, 2026 deadline to determine whether they will extend the pact for an additional 16 years or shift to yearly assessments until termination in 2036, the Wall Street Journal noted.
Beef occupies a unique position as both a leading agricultural import and export for the United States, leaving the sector particularly vulnerable to trade friction. Products covered by the agreement remained exempt from tariffs Trump enacted against Mexican and Canadian merchandise in 2025.
Livestock and beef commodities traverse national boundaries without barriers owing to lowered duties and standardized rules crafted over 30 years. Virtually all cattle entering the United States arrive from Mexico and Canada, reaching approximately 2.1 million animals valued beyond $3 billion in 2024, United States Department of Agriculture figures show.
That critical supply chain has deteriorated significantly. Live cattle entering America dropped more than 50 percent during 2025. Imports of young Mexican cattle cratered over 80 percent in 2026 because of the screwworm epidemic.
Ranchers have now detected the parasite among herds in southern Texas and New Mexico, the Wall Street Journal documented. Canadian authorities reacted by prohibiting live cattle shipments from contaminated areas.
Ottawa continues refusing to participate in current negotiations, forcing Washington and Mexico City to proceed bilaterally. Agricultural matters have become the focal point, with beef commanding particular attention.
José Niño is the deputy editor of Headline USA. Follow him at x.com/JoseAlNino
