‘There’s a real possibility of a brokered convention and that in itself may be enough to serve as motivation for some who might have otherwise dropped out…’
(Ben Sellers, Liberty Headlines) Those prone to theorize about a nefarious plot by establishment Democrats to avoid the vetting of their 2020 candidate have new reason to wonder following the disastrous Iowa primary and recent intra-party clashes.
Suspicions were rampant in the fall that former First Lady Michelle Obama, failed 2016 candidate Hillary Clinton or another surprise contender might swoop in at the last minute.
They went largely dormant in January, after crucial filing deadlines passed to land on the ballot in major-delegate states like California. That narrowed the options of a yet-unannounced player to either a write-in campaign or a brokered convention if no single candidate won the majority of delegates.
But the failures of the Iowa app—which was backed by Clinton allies, along with funding from shady leftist mega-donor George Soros —invited questions as to whether the end game might be a deliberate attempt to engineer a surprise outcome.
The Hill noted that, according to the left-wing FiveThirtyEight blog, there now was a nearly one-in-four chance that no candidate would win a majority of delegates. By comparison, recent analyses gave former Vice President Joe Biden, the longtime favorite, a one-in-five chance.
With many fearing that the collateral damage of the primaries could help fuel President Donald Trump’s general election chances, a brokered convention could circumvent the entire the primary process—and the devastating political vetting that has gone alongside it.
“There’s a real possibility of a brokered convention—and that, in itself, may be enough to serve as motivation for some who might have otherwise dropped out, to hang around longer to see if they can’t have a place in this thing and play a part in determining the nominee,” said Jim Demers, a veteran Democratic strategist in New Hampshire, according to The Hill.
“Resources will be key,” Demers added.
Follow the Money…
In advance of Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary, party leaders there suggested that the late-entry of one wealthy, ascendant candidate could further contribute to the subversion of the Democratic nominating contest.
Former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who entered the race late last year, announced that he planned to bypass several of the early primaries, deeming them a waste of time.
While Bloomberg will be on the ballot in March 3 “Super Tuesday” states, when most of the primary voters will have their say, that only raises the likelihood of more chaos to come.
“I think Bloomberg entering into this thing provides a much greater possibility of a brokered convention,” said Chris Spirou, a former New Hampshire Democratic Party chairman
Bloomberg—one of the top Democratic donors of all time, along with Soros and fellow 2020 candidate Tom Steyer—has quickly risen in the polls while using his vast personal war-chest to inundate the airwaves and the internet with advertising.
Despite his extreme stances on issues like climate change that have raised serious ethical concerns, the media-mogul—who first governed the Big Apple as a Republican before switching parties—has sought to stake out the same “moderate” turf as waning ex-front-runner Biden.
Risk Versus Reward
The Hill said that relying on a brokered convention, which would put the decision in the hands of convention super-delegates over the delegates sent there to represent the will of the people, posed an inherent political risk.
The bases supporting a particular candidate—such as those of Iowa co-victors Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg—might sit out the November election in protest.
Many have openly doubted the fitness of the far-left Sanders to take on Trump, resulting in a newfound sense of defeatist resignation in the Left’s discussions behind closed doors.
“There’s a new fatalism in my conversations with Democrats, with many telling me that what once seemed unthinkable,” wrote Axios’s Mike Allen. “Trump’s re-election in November—is now starting to look more likely than ever.”
But despite disfranchising its own voters in favor of party elites, the brokered-convention strategy bears all the hallmarks of other recent Democratic maneuvers, such as the impeachment effort against Trump, to leave nothing to chance in their attempt to unseat the president.
“It would be much better if we had a candidate win a sufficient number of delegates going into the convention,” Spirou said, “but I’m confident we’ll have a candidate coming out of it who can defeat Trump.”
Secret Preparations?
While The Hill focused mainly on the possibility of a Bloomberg spoiler campaign, it hinted that there was still room for another candidate, like Michelle Obama, who may have secretly been securing donors and backers behind the scenes, to coast into the race under such circumstances.
Former President Barack Obama has been noticeably quiet during the primary, while subtly badmouthing leading candidates like Biden and Sanders.
On the few occasions when Obama has spoken publicly, he has offered vague suggestions that did little to dispel the speculation of a late run for his wife. He has suggested that a female candidate was preferred and encouraged those running to pledge all their resources to the eventual nominee.
Likewise, frequent kingmaker Soros pointedly decided to remain on the sidelines during the primary.
Most agree that the eventual Democratic candidate will need a substantial war-chest—but whether they believe that points to Bloomberg or if the billionaire is simply a red herring, it remains anyone’s guess.
Some leftist spin-doctors sought to downplay the disarray and divisiveness of a brokered convention, suggesting it could provide a jolt of excitement to the party’s politics after an exhausting, drawn-out primary battle.
“Every four years there’s this fantasy about the possibility and how fun and exciting it would be,” veteran Democrat operative Joe Trippi told The Hill.
“This year you have the Iowa muddle, Bloomberg’s billions, Biden’s strength with African Americans, so it could happen,” Trippi added. “And if it doesn’t happen with all that’s going on this time around, forget it, it’ll never happen.”