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Saturday, April 20, 2024

Poll: Biden to Beat Announced Dems but Not Michelle Obama

'He'd better make sure Michelle Obama is on his Christmas card list...'

(Brett Rowland, The Center Square) Democratic voters are prepared to back Joe Biden for another term in office – that is, unless Michelle Obama decides to step in.

The Center Square Voters' Voice Poll - Logo

The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted in conjunction with Noble Predictive Insights, found that Biden would coast to victory over declared candidates attorney Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and writer and speaker Marianne Williamson.

Democratic voters would pick Biden (68%) over Kennedy Jr. (16%), with the remaining undecided. Similarly, voters would pick the incumbent (67%) over Williamson (9%), according to the poll of 2,500 registered voters.

The prospects for the declared challengers are low.

“They have an uphill battle and their chances are looking pretty slim right now,” said Mike Noble, founder and CEO of Noble Predictive Insights.

TCS-VVP - Story 3 - Dem Primary Matchups - Declared Candidates.png

Biden would defeat a handful of hypothetical candidates who have not declared and are unlikely to do so as well. He’d have no trouble beating former New York City Gov. Bill de Blasio (9%) or Minnesota U.S. Rep. Ilhan Omar (10%). 

The incumbent would have narrower but still decisive victories if he had to face Vice President Kamala Harris (26%), California Gov. Gavin Newsom (25%), U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (30%) or former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (34%).

But Michelle Obama (48%) would have more support than Biden (36%) if she jumped into the race. The wife of former President Barack Obama has  strong support from women, people younger than 55, moderate Democrats, voters without kids, and voters with children younger than 18, according to the poll. 

TCS-VVP - Story 3 - Dem Primary Matchups - Hypothetical Candidates.png

“Biden is pretty safe in the Democratic primary,” Noble said. “However, he’d better make sure Michelle Obama is on his Christmas card list.”

Biden does have some weaknesses, including with 18- to 34-year-olds, Democrats in the southwest and voters who say crime is out of control, according to the poll. 

Voters also would like to see Biden debate his challengers. In fact, 64% want a debate, polling shows. Support for a debate is stronger among Democrats (68%) than Republicans and independents (both 62%). Even more surprisingly, voters who already support Biden are the ones who want a debate the most.

In every hypothetical Democratic matchup, voters who want to see Biden debate are at least, if not more, likely to support Biden than Democrats overall. 

The Democratic National Committee has already decided not to sponsor any primary debates ahead of the 2024 election.

The poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from July 31 to Aug. 3. Unlike traditional national polls, with limited respondent count of about 1,000, Noble Predictive surveyed 1,000 registered Republicans, 1,000 registered Democrats, and 500 independents, culminating in a sample size of 2,500. The margin of error for the aggregate sample was ±2.4%, with each political group independently weighted. For information about the methodology.

Earlier poll results in The Center Square Voters’ Voices Poll indicate GOP frontrunners former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis would be locked in tight races with Biden and that Biden is largely underwater with voters in a number of key descriptors.

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