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Monday, January 30, 2023
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Leading Political Prognosticators Downgrade Dems’ Midterm Hopes

'The Democrats have a better chance to hold the Senate than the House in large part because Republicans are defending more Senate seats on this map... '

(Jacob Bruns, Headline USA) Political analysts from separate groups are beginning to arrive at the same conclusion: the Democrats are in major trouble as the 2022 midterm elections approach, the Daily Caller reported.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of election forecasting at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted that the major battle will take place in the House of Representatives, where Republicans have a chance to decisively flip.

“Our main question about the House continues to be not whether Republicans will flip the House — although we would not completely shut the door on Democrats’ retaining control if the political environment improves markedly — but rather how big the Republicans’ eventual majority will be,” Kondick wrote.

He also suggested that, out of the Democrats’ many problems, President Joe Biden‘s unpopularity reigns supreme.

“Overall, we know from history that the presidential party often struggles in midterm, and that effect can be exacerbated by an unpopular president. Biden’s numbers are weak.”

The Senate, however, is another issue, if only because more Republican Senators are up for reelection.

“The Democrats have a better chance to hold the Senate than the House in large part because Republicans are defending more Senate seats on this map. But the Republicans still have a number of credible offensive targets,” Kondick noted.

A separate polling entity, Cook Political Report was led to similar conclusions by a recent collection of data. According to CPR’s senior editor David Wasserman, Biden’s failed agenda is to blame.

“President Biden’s approval rating remains stuck at 42 percent, and if anything the political environment has deteriorated for Democrats since January as inflation concerns have soared and Build Back Better has stalled,” he wrote.

In Wasserman’s view, Republicans have an opportunity to steal some seats that have not been in play for them for some time.

“No Democrat in a single-digit Biden (or Trump-won) district is secure, and even some seats Biden carried by double-digit margins in 2020 could come into play this fall, giving the GOP surprising ‘reach’ opportunities,” he said.

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