(Anthony Hennen, The Center Square) — Voter sentiment offers a mixed bag to Democratic candidates in Pennsylvania, according to a recent poll.
Gov. Josh Shapiro’s popularity among residents remains steady, and President Joe Biden has a lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, but all is not rosy for Democrats.
The latest quarterly poll from the Commonwealth Foundation found Shapiro has a 62% approval rating and Biden leads Trump 44-41. But only 35% of Pennsylvanians think the state is moving in the right direction. Biden has a 54% disapproval rating in the state.
And, in the U.S. Senate race, incumbent Sen. Bob Casey leads presumptive Republican challenger Dave McCormick 47-30 — but 23% of poll respondents were undecided between the two.
What the polling reveals may be less of a Democratic or Republican lead, but a certain disillusionment with the choices voters get at the polling place. In state and national politics, a significant chunk of Pennsylvania voters are unhappy with the status quo and with either major party.
A majority of respondents, 60%, said they were “somewhat dissatisfied” or “very dissatisfied” with 2024’s presidential candidates. That dismay could carry over to state races, too.
Erik Telford, senior vice president of public affairs for the Commonwealth Foundation, said that “it’s a red flag” when an incumbent polls at less than 50%.
“Across the state, what turnout looks like, how opinions change over time — a lot can happen,” he said. “Much remains to be seen.”
With no names attached, though, Pennsylvania Democrats may have more hope.
Commonwealth’s poll found that 43% of respondents preferred a Democratic candidate in Congress over a Republican one. And, for president, respondents also preferred a Democrat over a Republican, 51% to 44%. That represents a five point gain for Democrats since the last quarterly poll.
What pushes a registered voter’s concerns are mostly pocketbook issues: inflation/cost of living was the top-ranked issue (22%), followed by crime/rising violence (8%), and the economy (7%).
The same issues were at the top of mind for Pennsylvanians considering a move: lower cost of living, lower taxes, and better jobs and opportunities were the top answers respondents noted for why they wanted to leave the commonwealth.
A YouTube video by Decision Desk HQ covers current polling for the rest of the nation, and projects a hefty Trump lead.
